Bryce Elder
This one requires a bit more speculation because on the whole, Bryce Elder did his job in 2023. Yes yes, he definitely faded in the second half as he got gassed from throwing the most innings he ever had, but the guy still posted a 3.81 ERA in 31 starts last season and made the All-Star team. As a fourth or fifth starter, you take that every time.
However, there are enough concerns about Elder's ability to handle a starter's workload over a full season in addition to his peripherals that his spot in the rotation is far from certain. He definitely deserves praise for the work he did in the first half, but there was some smoke and mirrors associated with that and for all of 2023, he got hit hard and didn't miss enough bats. That does not project well.
Again, the top three spots in the rotation are locked up. If we assume that another spot will be occupied by either one of the young guys mentioned in the Dodd section OR by a new addition that comes later in the offseason, that still leaves room for Elder. Where things get sticky is from another signing the Braves made earlier this offseason in Reynaldo Lopez.
Lopez was a starting pitching prospect of note for a while before he was converted into being a strong reliever. While there is a strong argument to be made that he should remain a bullpen arm, the Braves seem to think that Lopez could become a starter again and are going to let him stretch out this offseason to give it a go. Given the quality of Lopez's raw stuff, Elder could end up on the outside looking in if that conversion goes well.
There are a lot of moving parts here, so no one should assume anything right now. There is a strong likelihood that we won't know how the Braves' rotation will shake out until we see how all of these guys look this spring. However, Elder's spot on the Braves' roster is far from certain and that is especially true if the Braves add another arm either in free agency or in another trade.