3 players the Braves could regret paying as much as they are in 2024
Not every contract the Braves have on the books right now look particularly good.
The Atlanta Braves have cultivated a well-earned reputation of locking up their players on deals that range from very reasonable to extraordinarily team-friendly. Ozzie Albies' bargain of a contract remains one of the gold standards for team-friendly deals and Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, and others have all also signed for terms beneficial to the Braves.
However, not every deal the Braves have on the books is a slam dunk. Austin Riley could probably get significantly more on the open market, but the Braves did still have to fork over a $212 million extension to lock him up. Matt Olson is in a similar boat as his eight year, $168 million extension is a lot of money despite represented a bit of a discount. Whenever any player gets $20+ million guaranteed for the better part of a decade, the team is at least taking on a good bit a risk regardless of what the free agent market looks like.
Then we come to the deals that may end up looking down right bad by the end of the 2024 season. The circumstances behind all of these deals are slightly different and none of them are locks to actually be mistakes. In fact, all three of these guys could even outperform how much they are getting paid this year. However, these three Braves players represent the group that carries the most risk to crater this coming season who are also making eight figures for 2024. Let's take a look at the contracts that Atlanta may come to regret by the end of the 2024 season.
Charlie Morton
Charlie Morton has continued to defy conventional wisdom for years now. Most starting pitchers decline significantly in their late 30's, but Morton has flourished since 2017 when he saw a big jump in the quality of his stuff and all of a sudden, the strikeouts came rolling in during his time with the Astros.
Morton rejoined the Braves for the 2021 season and there was a certain amount of skepticism as to how much longer he could keep this up. However, he has been fantastic with a 3.77 ERA across 94 starts and 521 innings of work. The Braves and Morton have taken a year by year approach to him coming back, but it is hard to argue with the results despite the $20 million a year Atlanta has been paying him.
However, the Braves exercising Morton's option for the 2024 season comes with some problems. Agreeing to pay Morton $20 million this season not only has had downstream ramifications for the moves the Braves could or could not make due to their luxury tax situation, but it also could be very risky. Morton is 40 years old now and he has dealt with some weird injuries over the last few years.
While the surface level numbers last year were fine, his command has been faltering, he is giving up more home runs, and he is struggling to keep the ball on the ground. Chances are that he will find a way to make it work again if history is any indication, but it wouldn't take much of a drop-off to make $20 million look like a bad deal.
Marcell Ozuna
If you were to circle one name before the 2023 season that Braves fans almost universally wanted to trade away, it would have been Marcell Ozuna. His off the field issues combined with total lack of production on the field made him a popular target for fans' ire. Based on the reporting from those first couple of months of the 2023 season, it sure seemed like Ozuna was very close to getting cut from the roster altogether.
However, Ozuna somehow found his footing to at least produce on the field last season. In almost 600 plate appearances in 2023, Ozuna slashed .274/.346/.558 while hitting a career high 40 home runs. It is also worth mentioning that multiple reports have shown Ozuna to be beloved in the Braves clubhouse despite his multiple arrests in recent years.
Aside from his self-inflicted reputation for making poor life choices adding risk to his inclusion on the roster, folks may want to pump the brakes on assuming that Ozuna is completely return to form after one good season. This is still the same guy that averaged a .675 OPS combined for the 2021 and 2022 and he is 33 years old. His career is also filled with inconsistency at the plate which is where all his value is since putting him in the field is definitely not a good idea.
Marcell is set to make $16 million in 2024 and the Braves also hold a club option for that amount for 2025. If Ozuna has another good season, that will be money well spent and it isn't that crazy to think that the Braves could consider exercising that option of his. However, if he regresses again...or gets hurt again...or gets arrested again, that deal is going to look pretty rough.
Raisel Iglesias
Finally, we come to Raisel Iglesias. Just to be clear, Iglesias has been an excellent addition to the Braves' bullpen ever since they acquired him at the 2022 trade deadline. He was absolutely unhittable in 2022 after the trade and the 2023 season saw him post a 2.75 ERA in 58 appearances with 68 strikeouts in 55.2 innings of work. Overall, he has been a stud.
The only reason he is on this list is because of the position he plays, the amount he is getting paid, and some mildly concerning trends. Iglesias will make $16 million a year for the next two seasons. For a reliever, that is a lot of money especially given how volatile relievers can be when it comes to health and performance over time. Iglesias is also 34 years old and saw hitters squaring up his fastball a lot more in 2023 while seeing his walk rate tick upwards. Any one of these factors could be written off by themselves, but taken together does seem to indicate a player that could underperform next season.
Iglesias 2024 salary sets a pretty high bar that he has to clear to justify the cost. If he remains the Braves' primary closer and he is nails, then $16 million a year is more than fair. If he falters basically at all and/or the Braves start favoring other options in high leverage situations, his deal could become one that the Braves look to move in a trade in the next year or so.
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