Two games behind the second wildcard spot and the New York Mets with six games to play, the Braves have plenty of reasons they can point to for why the season has not gone as planned. Injuries probably top the list, but several things within their control could have gone differently.
Despite the injuries, the 2024 Braves have left a lot begging this season. Injuries have piled up but this team still should be a playoff team. And they might still pull it off, but with eight games left to play, they sit on the outside looking in. What has gone wrong for these Bravos, outside of the injuries?
There are several things you could pick from and probably have a point with this team, a lot has gone wrong. And some of it might be nitpicking. They are still 85-71 after all. But no matter the record, before the season if you knew the Braves were in danger of missing the playoffs this late in the season, you'd ask "What went wrong?"
The Braves inability to beat inferior teams hurt them a lot
1. Their record agaist teams under .500
The Braves are 40-33 against teams under .500, and at the surface level that might not seem that bad, but for a Braves team expected to be one of the best in baseball, that's not going to cut it.
Last year they were 49-25. Seven games above .500 against bad teams is not how you make the playoffs, and it's a big part of the reason the Braves are where they are. And making it even more frustrating is their record against teams with winning records.
Why? Because it's better.
45-38 against mostly playoff teams is fourth in all of Major League Baseball, and that's exactly where you want to be. If the Braves could have taken care of business more often this season against teams they should beat, they wouldn't be begging to get the final wildcard spot, they'd be racing the Phillies for the division title.
The good news for the Braves is they have two games against the Marlins, three against the Mets, and three against the Royals to finish the year. Six games against teams above .500. If they can do what they've done all season and play up to their competition, they should be in the mix to still get that final wildcard spot.
2. The Braves have been terrible in close games
And terrible may be and understatement.
Right now, the Braves are 17-26 in games decided by one run or less. And part of that goes back to injuries, as they have to throw together an unrecognizable lineup at times, with less experience in clutch moments than guys like Acuna, Riley, and Albies, who have all missed significant time.
It's not the bullpen and starting pitching, we all know that has been the Braves' strength. Their bullpen ERA is 3.33, third-best in the MLB. They aren't blowing games on defense, rather they are blowing them on offense.
They haven't been able to rally late, with the ninth-worst offense in the MLB in ninth inning runs.
When you have to pitch as good as the Braves have this year, you've got to be good in close games, and the Braves just haven't been, and it's led to too many losses that easily could have gone the other way.
3. They have struggled to hit the fastball
The fastball is still the most used pitch in baseball, and the Braves simply have not been good enough against it.
Their calling card and the calling card of most good teams is the ability to seek the fastball and when it comes, attack it.
It's what has made the Braves' offense so good over their six-year division title run. Last year, five players hit over. 300 against the fastball, with Ozzie Albies right outside at .298. Eight players 50% or better hard-hit rate, with Ozzie again just below at 49.7.
In 2024? Three players are above .300 and two of them are Ramon Laureano and Jorge Soler, players that have not played the whole season with the Braves.
Marcel Ozuna, of course, is unconscious against the pitch, with a .354 batting average and a 59.3 hard-hit rate. But after Soler's .302 average, the next highest is .262 from Michael Harris II.
Matt Olson is next at .249. Only four players are hitting above .250. Austin Riley is hitting .172 against the fastball. Sean Murphy is hitting just. 204.
Being that bad against a pitch that common is a recipe for disaster and that has been the Braves' offense in 2024.