2 reasons why the Braves should trade for Shane Bieber, 1 why they should avoid him
The Braves find themselves connected to yet another rotation arm on the trade market.
Given the state of the starting pitcher free agent market and how expensive a lot of those guys are going to end up being, it is no wonder that the Atlanta Braves seem to be actively looking at the trade market as an alternative. The Braves haven't liked handing out big money to free agents since the Ted Turner days and this is particularly true of pitchers. With how pitcher injuries have increased over the years and how badly a lot of those contracts have aged for other teams, it is hard to blame them.
With the Winter Meetings starting up today, Braves fans should start to get some clarity soon as to who Atlanta could make a push for this offseason and one name that has come up recently is Cleveland's Shane Bieber. The Guardians don't seem particularly interested in try to field the best team possible in 2024 as they deal with some revenue challenges and The Athletic's Jim Bowden pegged the Braves as a possible destination for Bieber if Cleveland does decide to move him.
While Bieber is not a sure thing, there is a pretty compelling case for Atlanta to acquire him with one big caveat. Here's a look at the case for and against the Braves trading for Shane Bieber.
Bieber has a long track record of success
Due to Bieber being banged up a bit in recent years (more on that later), fans seem to forget just how good this guy can be. In fact, it wasn't that long ago that Bieber was considered one of the best pitchers in baseball .
From 2019-2022, Bieber had three top 7 Cy Young finishes including winning it in 2020 as well as two All-Star Game appearances, a Gold Glove, and finishing fourth in the AL MVP race in 2020. Over that period of time, he averaged a 2.91 ERA while striking out 713 batters in just 588.1 innings of work. The guy has missed bats, doesn't walk hitters, gets a ton of groundballs, and his slider has consistently been one of the more valuable pitches in baseball.
Even during 2023 which was very clearly a down year for him due some issues with his elbow, he still put up a 3.80 ERA in 21 starts for a Guardians team that basically cratered in the second half of the season. Pitchers with Bieber's sort of upside just don't hit the trade market very often.
Another upside to trading for Bieber is that he's already said that he is open to signing an extension if he is moved. Atlanta certainly has to do their due diligence here, but a guy this talented who is also willing to stick around and avoid free agency after 2024 is an option they have to consider closely.
Shane Bieber would cost the Braves a LOT less than Dylan Cease
The elephant in the room in this discussion is whether or not the Braves would prefer trading for Dylan Cease instead of Bieber. The Braves have been connected to Cease throughout the early portion of the offseason and given the quality of his stuff and the extra year of team control Cease has, there is plenty of reason to prefer him over a guy like Bieber who could end up being just a rental.
Cost is going to be an important factor here, however. Bieber is going to end up making a bit more in terms of salary in 2024 given that this is his last arbitration year, but the difference is only a few million between the two guys. However, the cost to acquire Cease is going to vastly outpace what it is going to take to nab Bieber and that is an important consideration given Atlanta's limited minor league depth.
In terms of upside, Bieber and Cease are relatively close with Cease maybe having the edge because he throws harder. However, Cease has an extra year of team control which is going to make him quite a bit pricier especially when you factor in that it sounds like the White Sox are willing to wait a bit before moving Cease to try and get a better deal as teams get more desperate for starting pitching.
With Chicago playing hard to get and the number of teams that are in on Cease, Atlanta may find that trading for Bieber is a move they can get done more quickly (a preference that AA is known to have) while also costing a whole lot less than if they stayed in the Dylan Cease derby to the bitter end.
Bieber's recent injury history should be a big red flag for the Braves
The one thing that the Braves have to keep in mind and make sure they get right is what to make of Shane Bieber's recent injury history. Pitchers are already a risky proposition without any previous issues on their record, so a guy like Bieber who has dealt with arm troubles without going under the knife yet could be too big a risk to take on.
In 2021, Bieber threw just 96.2 innings coming off his Cy Young award due to a shoulder strain that put him on the shelf for basically the entire second half. After throwing 200 excellent innings in 2022, 2023 saw the injury bug bite him yet again as elbow inflammation took him out from mid-July through September.
Injuries happen quite a bit and very often, players can bounce back from them without too many long-term concerns. However, there have been signs that those injuries and all those miles on Bieber's arm are causing him to regress significantly. His strikeout rate has dropped by 33% or more the last couple of seasons from where it was at the height of his powers and his fastball in particular has performed worse and worse over time including a slight steady decrease in his average velo over the last few years.
At the end of the day here, what matters is what the Braves see as fixable. If all of the medical examinations come back clear and Atlanta sees some adjustments that Bieber could make, then they should be all over making a play for him. However, if the medicals are more iffy and there isn't a clear solution to Bieber's woes, they probably need to pass.
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