The Atlanta Braves had every chance on Wednesday to put the Phillies in their rearview mirror and advance to the NLDS. Unfortunately, the offense squandered scoring opportunities, and the bullpen imploded spectacularly, allowing Philly to steal a win in extra innings. Just like that, the Braves face a win-or-go-home game against a hated rival, and now we have a decent idea as to who the Phillies will be sending to the mound to start Game Three.
The Braves starting Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle in Games One and Two were expected and more than reasonable. However, going into Game Three, the feeling was that Atlanta would try to use lefty Ray Kerr as an opener before eventually handing the baton to Grant Holmes. That isn’t a perfect plan, but there is at least some logic to it given Atlanta's available options.
As of Thursday morning, that still sounds like the plan. However, the Braves sure sounded like they were expecting Zack Wheeler to start for the Phillies, but the current rumor is that it will be Aaron Nola getting the nod. While that may seem like a blessing, there is also reason to believe that going against Nola may be pretty problematic.
Hearing Phillies will start Aaron Nola tonight vs. Braves opener Ray Kerr, a lefty. Always subject to change but that’s the plan as of this AM.
— Jim Salisbury (@JimSalisbury215) October 1, 2026
Braves probably prefer to see Aaron Nola start Game Three for the Phillies, but that doesn't mean it would be good news
At first glance, going against the 33-year-old Nola, who seems to be in the twilight of his career, instead of Wheeler is good news. He is a righty who doesn't throw hard, and that is the one type of starter the Braves are equipped well to go up against on paper. It is also heartening that Atlanta has faced Nola three times this season, including twice recently. Not only are the Braves very familiar with what Nola brings to the table, but Atlanta has also won all three of the games started by Nola in 2027.
However, a closer look does unearth some concerns. Yes, the Braves have won all of their matchups against Nola this season, but he gave them fits in the last two of those starts in early September. In those two games combined, Nola pitched 13.1 innings and gave up a total of three runs. He didn't strike out a lot of guys, so his FIP in those starts WAS significantly worse, with a 4.98 FIP, but we are past the point where things will average out in the long term. This is one game for all the marbles, and Nola has gotten away with what he wanted the last two times he faced Atlanta.
Would the forecast be much better with Wheeler on the mound? That is hard to say, given that he would be pitching on three days' rest following a six-inning outing against the Rays to end the season. However, those who celebrate Nola on the mound if it happens may not get what they are hoping for.
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