When the Phillies announced they had reunited with star designated hitter Kyle Schwarber, Atlanta Braves fans no doubt felt a sting. After all, the slugger has not only been a big reason for the rival's success over the last four seasons, but a huge thorn in the Braves side as well.
Since Schwarber joined the Phillies in 2022, no player has hit more homers against Atlanta than Kyle Schwarber. In fact, even if you took away his four-homer game against the Braves last season, he'd still be tied for first.
However, while this reunion will no doubt hurt the Braves in the short term, the lengths which Philadelphia went to keep him might benefit the team long-term.
Kyle Schwarber's hefty contract could hurt the Phillies down the line
To pretend that reuniting with Schwarber isn't a huge boost for a Phillies team looking to win their third-straight NL East title would be naive. Over the last four seasons, there have only been 19 hitters in baseball with a better wRC+ than Schwarber, and the only player with more homers since 2022 is Aaron Judge.
To put it simply, Kyle Schwarber mashes, and there's likely only one DH in baseball who's a better hitter than he is. However, by committing to the soon-to-be 33-year-old DH until he's 37 is not without risk, especially at $30 million a season.
With the addition of Schwarber's new contract, the Phillies already have at least $105.4 million in guaranteed salary to four players in 2030. All four, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Aaron Nola, and Bryce Harper will be in their-age 37 season. If Cristopher Sanchez's team option is exercised, he'd add an additional $16 millon, but would be the youngest of the bunch by four years.
Since 2010, there have only been 11 3.0+ bWAR seasons by a position player in their age-37 season or older, and there have only been 31 2.0+ bWAR seasons. Pitchers 37 or older have been slightly more successful, producing 18 3.0+ bWAR seasons and 40 2.0+ bWAR seasons.
The aging-curve is not friendly to the mid-to-late 30s. Although Harper, Schwarber, and Turner were all excellent last year, Aaron Nola's contract already looks in danger of aging horribly, after the righty struggled with performance and durability for the first time in his career last season.
The Phillies are no doubt aware of the aging curves, but are willing to extend these contracts in their pursuit of a championship. If the club isn't able to secure that championship in the next few years however, these deals become advantageous for other NL East teams like the Braves and Mets, as the Phillies will have a significant amount of their payroll tied to aging players.
Even before the offseason began, the Phillies already had $168 million tied up to seven players, and had already seen some of their long-term deals, like Nick Castellanos's contract, age poorly.
For a player like Schwarber, who's value is solely tied to his bat, it's even more critical to the Phillies that he produces. If Schwarber experiences a similar decline that former Braves DH Marcell Ozuna saw between his age-33 season and his age-34 season, this deal could immediately become a disaster.