When the Atlanta Braves acquired Nick Allen this offseason, it would have been bold to predict that the slap-hitting 26-year-old with a career 55 OPS+ would so quickly and assertively steal the starting shortstop spot. But a month-and-a-half into the season.
Thanks to a career-best season offensively so far and elite defense, Allen has deserved to play everyday. However the bat still poses a huge question mark going forward, and it's easy to wonder how much his bat could falter before the Braves need to start considering other options?
This is how much worse Nick Allen can hit before he becomes a problem
Nick Allen's bat was always going to be a question mark, even when it was assumed he woiuld just be a bench player. With a career .209/.254/.283 slashline entering 2025, the shortstop hadn't shown a single positive offensive trait, lacking on-base skills and slugging skills.
27 games into his 2025 season, he's been much luckier on balls in play, with his .371 BABIP over 100 points higher than any of his previous three seasons. Allen still struggles with any sort of pop, as he only has four extra-base hits all season, while also running a career-low walk-rate (4.4%) and a career-high strikeout-rate (25.3%).
Essentially, it's arguable right now that Allen's offense has mostly been smoke and mirrors. His .260 xwOBA is only 10 points better than his 2023 season, where he slashed .221/.263/.287 with a 56 OPS+.
If Allen can somehow continue rocking an 80 OPS+, his Gold Glove level defense justifies his playing time. However, as we saw with Orlando Arcia last season, anything below that becomes instantly questionable.
Arcia finished with a 73 OPS+ last season, just seven points lower than where Allen stands right now, and Atlanta was very quick to pull the trigger and hand the former Athletic the starting shortstop position a few games into the season.
While Arcia wasn't quite playing the level of defense Allen is now, one could also look at 2024 Gold Glove finalist Jacob Young of the Washington Nationals, who finished third in baseball last season with 19 OAA.
The speedy center fielder finished the season with an 85 OPS+, which combined with his excellent defense, completely justified his everyday role on the team. This season, however, his offense has taken a step back, which has Nationals fans wondering if they need a replacement for an outfielder who finished with a 2.6 WAR season last year.
Right now, it's arguable that Allen doesn't even need to hit at all considering his defense is in the 100th percentile according to Outs Above Average. So far in 2025, only Chicago Cubs star center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has more than Allen's 6 OAA.
However, it's also arguable that this defensive showing is not sustainable. Allen is closing in on a career-best season. While he accumulated an impressive 8 OAA in 2022 across three positions, he had seen significant regression at defense in 2023 and 2024, totaling -2 OAA across the two seasons.
For now, Allen completely deserves the playing time he is getting. However, the Braves should be proactive in seeking out potential replacements if they can find a deal that works for them.