Rejoice, the Atlanta Braves have finally handed out a Major League contract this offseason. It only took Alex Anthopoulos nearly three months, but better late than never right? Most of Braves country celebrated the three year deal the team handed out to Jurickson Profar yesterday afternoon. However, as we take a step back from the initial euphoria it's time to evaluate what exactly the Braves are getting in Jurickson Profar.
Yes, it's clear Profar makes the club better in 2025. Padres fans saw last season just how big an impact Profar can make when he's clicking as he posted career-highs in the triple slash categories (.280/.380/.459), home runs (24), RBI (85), wRC+ (139), and fWAR (4.3). All good signs and reason enough for Atlanta to guarantee him $42 million over the next three seasons. Despite those impressive numbers, signing Profar doesn't come without risks.
#MLBTonight reacts to Jurickson Profar's contract with the Atlanta Braves. pic.twitter.com/luzfzS5dXX
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 23, 2025
Jurickson Profar has flashes star potential but Braves fans should remain cautious
It's believed the Braves still have money to spend, but it's very likely Profar ends up as their biggest money signing of the offseason. The change in his swing led the Braves to believe the 2024 results were real and sustainable going forward. However, what if 2024 was the best version of Profar and he declines in Atlanta?
It's pretty rare for a player to accumulate over 3,000 plate appearances at the Major League level then suddenly figure it out and become a productive player. But that's exactly what Profar did in 2024. Entering 2024 Profar had never posted a wRC+ over 113 in a full season. Suddenly, in the eleventh year of his big league career Profar seemed to figure it all out.
Banking on a 139 wRC+ again from Profar probably isn't a wise decision for Braves fans. However, anything above league average will result in a net positive for Atlanta, as the team has struggled to find conisistent production out of left field for many years now.
The biggest red flag to Profar's current game is his athleticism. Last season he ranked in the 26th percentile is sprint speed, thus really limiting his range in the outfield. The Braves were a team that really struggled to find speed and rack up stolen bases, especially when Ronald Acuna Jr. went down with his knee injury.
Profar once was the top prospect in all of baseball as a shortstop in the Texas Rangers organization, so adjusting full-time to the outfield has been a bit of an adventure. Last season Profar ranked in the ninth percentile in fielding run value and seventh percentile in outs above average (OAA). It shouldn't be Jorge Soler levels of bad for Profar defensively, but he's certainly going to have to hit to live up to the value of his contract.
In conclusion, the lack of a track record and spotty defense present the biggest red flags with this Jurickson Profar deal. However, given the dollar amount the Braves ended up getting him for, Profar would have to put up some really subpar offensive numbers for Atlanta to finish disappointed in this contract. This deal may come with risks, but the contract handed out makes it well worth the potential reward.