Through the first three months of the season, Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson looked like he was on his way to at least another 30 home run season. On June 18, during the Braves 72nd game of the season, Olson hit his 15th homer of the season, which would have put him on pace for 33 homers over 162 games (a mark that would be unsurprising for Olson to play out).
However since this homer against the rival Mets, Olson has only hit four homers in the last 55 games. Surprisingly, Olson's offensive production hasn't suffered, but should fans be worried about this sudden power outage?
What happened to Matt Olson's power?
Through June 18, Matt Olson was averaging a 93.9 MPH exit velocity on his batted balls on a 13º launch angle. 18.2% of his batted balls were barrels, and his xSLG was .559. Even with 15 home runs, Olson was significantly underperforming his xSLG, as his actual slugging percentage was .479.
Since his home run against the Mets, Olson's 93.1 MPH average exit velocity and 16º launch angle hardly feels different, and his hard hit rate has even increased from 54.0% to 55.4%, but the 31-year-old's barrel rate on batted balls has dropped to 8.3%.
While Olson's overall numbers have been great, as his higher batting average (.294 compared to .251 through June 18) and on-base percentage (.384 since June 19 compared to .354 before) have essentially negated the power loss, the underlying numbers are slightly concerning.
Olson's over performed his .254 xBA by 40 points, and although he's only over performed his xSLG by seven points, his that .430 SLG would be over 20 points worse than his previous full-season career low.
Of course, Matt Olson has had cold stretches before, he hasn't had a power outage quite like this. Prior to this season, the slugging first baseman had never had a fill month with fewer than three homers in his entire career. This year, he's had two straight three-homer months in June and July, and coming into August 22, he only had one homer in the first 19 games of the month.
If Olson can continue hit for a high average, walk at a high rate, and hit doubles the way he has, then the loss of homers will be no worse for the wear. After all, he might just start resembling a former Braves first baseman. However, if the hits begin to disappear, Olson might find himself in trouble.