Even for the most optimistic Atlanta Braves fans out there, what Hurston Waldrep has accomplished in the majors this season is pretty remarkable. Waldrep came into the 2025 season with a lot of questions regarding the quality of his fastball and whether or not he would ever have a mix of pitches that could reliably get big league hitters out.
The rest, as they say, is history. After adding a sinker at the suggestion of Sean Murphy, Waldrep has become a different pitcher entirely and has allowed his stellar splitter to play up like Atlanta was hoping it would when they drafted him in the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft. With a 2.88 ERA in 10 appearances this season, it is hard to argue with the results.
However, a closer look at Waldrep's numbers from this season does reveal a cause for concern when it comes to his chase rate in 2025.
Hurston Waldrep has been great, but the Braves really need to work on his chase rate
Something that isn't talked about in simple terms often is why a pitcher having a good chase rate matters. To paraphrase Greg Maddux, pitchers want their strikes to look like balls and their balls to look like strikes. You want a pitcher to get hitters to chase pitches out of the zone as those pitches are usually more likely to get whiffs or at least harmless contact versus pitches in the strike zone.
The problem is that Waldrep, despite having a nasty splitter, has a pretty poor chase rate this season which ranks in the bottom 8% in all of baseball. That low of a chase rate puts a real cap on Waldrep's upside especially when it comes to strikeouts and puts him at the mercy of the BABIP gods more than one would like. Pitching to contact is fine, but you would prefer more of that contact to come against pitches that hitters can't do anything with.
So far, Waldrep has made things work (to put it mildly) thanks to his strong ability to avoid barrels (97% in all of MLB) and keep the ball on the ground (top 82%) and that is a profile that has led to some successful big league careers. However, it would behoove the Braves to see if they can cook up some minor adjustments for Waldrep that can start getting more bad swings. If not, we may find that Waldrep's success this season may not last as long as everyone hopes it will.