No one should tempt fate by getting ahead of themselves after the Atlanta Braves' thrilling Game One win over the Phillies in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Yes, the vibes are incredibly high at the moment and winning is certainly better than losing, but no one should think this series is over until it is ACTUALLY over. Angering the baseball gods is a recipe for disaster.
That said, if we look strictly at the odds and ignore the specific matchup, there is an argument that the Braves' chances may be undersold right now. According to the prediction markets, Atlanta has roughly a 74% chance of winning this Wild Card series against Philly. As it turns out, winning the first game of a short series helps one's odds.
However, once you look at history, Atlanta may actually be a bigger favorite than that.
Riley and the Braves win Game 1 of the Wild Card Series over the Phillies!!! pic.twitter.com/f0DZiKRaRa
— Atlanta Braves Radio Network 🎙️ (@BravesRadioNet) September 29, 2026
History suggests that the Braves would have to have a collapse for the ages to lose playoff series vs. Phillies
MLB first created the Wild Card round during the COVID-shortened 2020 season and made it a permanent fixture in the postseason in 2022. Since its inception, there have been 24 Wild Card series before this season, and the team that won the first game of those series won 21 of the 24 matchups. If you are scoring at home, that is an 87.5% win rate. So far, so good for the Braves.
However, if you dig even deeper, things look even rosier for Atlanta. If the home team won the first game, they have NEVER lost a Wild Card series. That doesn't tell us anything about what will happen in Game Two, but it does bode well for the Braves in terms of advancing to take on the Dodgers.
Importantly, nothing is guaranteed. While it is heartening to see the Braves in a good position, the Wild Card series is still too new to have enough of a sample size to get too excited. Moreover, how many three-game series in the regular season have we seen go the other way? The postseason is a different animal, and the Braves having a game in hand matters a lot, but this thing is far from over (don't worry, wood was knocked during the writing of this article).
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