For the first time since MLB instituted the Draft Lottery, Atlanta Braves fans have a reason to pay attention. After finishing with the ninth-worst record, the Braves have a 4.54% chance to grab the first pick in the 2026 draft. With the lottery approaching, we thought it would be worth reviewing where the team stands.
Even if the Braves don't beat the odds at the first pick, however, the Draft Lottery should still be of interest to fans, as it will determine not only where the Braves pick with their first overall pick, but also the compensation pick they earned thanks to Drake Baldwin's Rookie of the Year win.
Everything you need to know about the Braves going into the MLB Draft Lottery
There three teams out of the 18 teams that didn't make the playoffs that are ineligible to take the first overall pick in 2026. The Colorado Rockies received lottery picks in back to back years, and teams are not allowed to receive a lottery pick in three consecutive years. Meanwhile. the Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals are excluded thanks to being "payor clubs", which are teams that give revenue sharing dollars.
Thanks to those these exclusions, the Braves' overall odds move to the sixth-best in MLB, rising from a 2.7% chance at the top pick to 4.54% odds. Of course, this mark is far lower than the White Sox, who have a 27.73% chance at the first overall pick, and the Twins, who have a 22.18% chance.
The lottery draws for the first six picks in the draft. Theoretically, if six teams below the Braves are able to able to grab the first six picks, Atlanta could draft as low as 15th, as the Rockies, Nationals, and Angels are locked in place for the 10th through 12th picks, though the odds that this happens are astronomically low.
If the Braves are able to win a lottery pick, their draft slot bonus for their first pick can range anywhere from over $11 million with the first overall pick to over $7.5 million with the sixth overall pick (assuming slot bonuses are similar to the 2025 draft). If they fall outside the first six picks, their slot bonuses will range from roughly $7.2 million to $5.1 million, with the low end being very unlikely.
According to MLB.com, the Braves are also projected to receive the 26th overall pick as their PPI (Prospect Promotion Incentive) pick for Drake Baldwin winning Rookie of the Year. The pick won't be solidified, however, until after the Draft Lottery, as it depends on the New York Mets positioning.
As it currently stands, the Mets will have their first round pick moved down 10 picks because they exceeded the second competitive-balance tax threshold. However, if they are able to overcome the odds and receive a top-six pick, they can keep that positioning, with their second round pick becoming the pick that moves down.
If the Mets receive a top-six pick, the Braves 26th-overall pick would actually move down one slot. In 2025, the difference in slot value between the 26th pick and the 27th pick was roughly $110,000.
While the prospect of the Braves grabbing their first overall pick since they selected Chipper Jones in 1990 will likely be the primary focus for fans during the lottery, the team's overall draft strategy could determine on the the way the ping pong balls fall.