10 years ago, on December 19, 2014, the Atlanta Braves traded outfielder Justin Upton and Aaron Northcraft in exchange for Jace Peterson, Dustin Peterson, Mallex Smith, international bonus compensation, and most memorably, lefty starter Max Fried.
Upton was entering his final year of arbitration and coming off a solid 3.1 bWAR season. Max Fried was recovering from Tommy John surgery. He, along with the other three prospects, were lottery tickets.
However, 10 years later, this trade easily looks like a steal for one of the teams.
How the Justin Upton trade grades for the Padres
The Padres knew they were getting a high-quality offensive player for one season, but they were also getting a 24-year pitching prospect who ranked in the top-20 for the Braves as depth add-on.
The Padres knew going into the trade that it was possible that Upton's 2015 was the only season of production they'd see from the trade, but they still decided to send four prospects, including their third-best prospect in Fried, for the younger Upton.
The then 27-year-old had a solid season with San Diego, slashing .251/.336/.454 (119 OPS+), putting up 4.2 bWAR in 150 games. He had 19 steals in 24 attempts, which was more steals than he had in his two seasons with the Braves combined, and had 7 DRS, a huge upgrade from the -11 DRS he accumulated in his time with Atlanta.
The Padres, unfortunately fell far short of expectations, finishing the season 74-88. Upton left for the Tigers in free agency, and while San Diego did get a compensation pick, Hudson Sanchez (who changed his name to Hudson Potts), never reached the majors.
Northcraft eventually debuted for the Padres, but only after getting released several times and playing in the minors for two other organizations.
In total, the Padres got 4.2 bWAR from the trade, all from Justin Upton's 2015, and badly missed the playoffs in his one season.
Padres grade: D+
How the Max Fried trade grades for the Braves
Before we get to the headliner for the Braves, let's look at how the other three prospects performed for the Braves.
Jace Peterson was the most MLB-ready player from the trade, as he debuted with the Padres in 2014, hitting .113/.161/.113 in his first cup of coffee. After the club had traded Tommy La Stella to the Cubs, the Braves needed a starting second baseman, which they filled with Peterson.
In His three seasons with Atlanta, he had mixed results. He put up a pedestrian 1.9 bWAR in his first two seasons with Atlanta, with an 86 OPS+. He primarily manned second, but in 2016 began using him across the diamond as well.
His third year was disastorous, however. In the super-utility role, he somehow managed -1.0 bWAR in 89 games. He only slashed .215/.318/.317 (68 OPS+), and was released after the season.
Mallex Smith had a decent rookie season with the Braves in 2016, putting up 1.0 bWAR, mostly thanks to his defense, but was traded to the Mariners after the season for Thomas Burrows and Luiz Gohara. Gohara managed -0.3 bWAR over his two seasons and Burrows never reached the majors.
Dustin Peterson only saw two at bats with the Braves big league squad, going 0-2 in 2018 before being claimed off waivers by the Tigers.
If this was it for the Justin Upton trade, the Braves would have easily been considered the losers. After all, the three prospects put up a combined 1.9 bWAR, with none of them even making it past arbitration with the club.
Thankfully, however, Max Fried was the prize of the trade. The House That Hank Built already has several articles on the lefty's time with the team. But, simply from a statistical standpoint, landing Fried was a massive success.
At the time of the trade, the lefty was still recovering from Tommy John. It was far from a sure thing that he'd even reach the majors. He didn't even make his minor league debut for the organization until 201, pitching the entire season at Rome.
He reached the majors in 2017, but didn't fully blossom until 2019. After that, however, he didn't look back.
In his eight seasons with Atlanta, Fried produced 24.1 bWAR, with 23.1 of that WAR coming from his pitching. The two-time All-Star ranks as the 14th-best pitcher in franchise history by the stat, right behind Tim Hudson, who was already a star when he joined the Braves and who pitched one more season in a Braves uniform.
After Michael Soroka's unfortunate Achilles injury, Fried stepped up to become the de facto ace for five seasons. From 2020 through 2024, the Fried had a 2.81 ERA, which was the third-lowest in the majors in that period.
And of course, Fried was on the mound during Game 6 of the World Series, pitching six shutout innings as the Braves won their first championship in 26 years.
In total, the Braves received 26.0 bWAR in the Justin Upton trade, over six times what the Padres received from the Braves. Last offseason, The Athletic listed it as one of the biggest trades of the last ten offseasons.
Braves grade: A+