Despite the Atlanta Braves' disappointing 2024, the team is still loaded with talent going into the 2025 season. With Ronald Acuña Jr, Spencer Strider, and Austin Riley coming back from injury, as well as 2024 NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale ready to run it back, it wouldn't be surprising if any of these players were projected to be the Braves top performer next season.
However, according to this preview by ZiPS creator Dan Szymborksi, none of those stars are expected to lead the Braves in WAR. That honor would go to none other than Michael Harris II.
A sneak peek at the ZiPS Projections x @FanGraphs Depth Chart for the next team to go in ZiPS, the Atlanta #Braves.#ZiPS25 pic.twitter.com/hEb3iVBsBT
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) November 20, 2024
ZiPS projects the Braves to get 5.6 WAR out of the center field position, with Money Mike getting the vast majority of the innings. This is 0.3 more WAR than the next closest position. But, even after a relatively disappointing 2024 by Money Mike's standards, this projection shouldn't be terribly surprising for Braves fans.
Braves star outfielder Michael Harris II is primed for an excellent 2025 season
Michael Harris II extends the Braves lead! 🤑
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 25, 2024
(via @MLB)pic.twitter.com/887iZ9YXYV
Michael Harris II still had an incredibly productive 2024, despite missing two months due to a strained hamstring, His 99 wRC+ (.264/.304/.418) was the lowest of his three-season career by 16 points, but his elite defense (8 OAA) more than made up for it.
On the whole, Harris was worth 2.0 fWAR and 3.2 bWAR, and this was even with missing 52 games.
Harris's offense also might have suffered from some bad luck. His xBA was 20 points lower than his batting average, while his xSLG was 43 points lower. He had the eighth-worst luck in baseball by xwOBA/wOBA.
Even more encouraging is that Harris ended 2024 on a heater like no other. From September 10 until the end of the season, Money Mike slashed .367/.407/.696 (199 wRC+). Harris began smoking the ball too. His average exit velocity from the beginning of the season through September 9 was 89.7 MPH. From September 10 onward, it increased nearly 4 MPH to 93.6 MPH.
It's no surprise that ZiPS is bullish on Harris's projections for next season. After all, Harris will only be 24 next season, has consistently shown elite defense at a premium defensive position, and even in a down season, was worth 2.0 fWAR in a season hampered by an injury that lasted two months.
Ronald Acuña Jr. trolling his little bro, Luisangel, after Michael Harris II robbed him with a diving catch 🤣 pic.twitter.com/ZN71x8btwf
— MLB (@MLB) September 25, 2024
ZiPS preview shows Harris projected as the best player on the team. Even with Austin Riley's consistency over the last four seasons, Harris's defense provides a huge advantage. Meanwhile, Acuña and Strider aren't projected to be back in time for the regular season. Chris Sale's injury history also hurts his projections going into 2025.
Money Mike still has some flaws to work out, namely his propensity to chase at pitches outside the zone, but his floor is still an above-average starter, while his ceiling is a star of MLB.