Despite his recent success, the Braves need to be wary of a Marcell Ozuna extension

You will struggle to find any player that has more severe ups and downs the last few years than Atlanta Braves slugger Marcell Ozuna. Even if you ignore Ozuna's well-chronicled legal troubles (which you can't really ignore if we are being honest), his production on the field has been all over the place going back to the 2020 season.

During the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Ozuna nearly got a Triple Crown thanks to a .338/431/.636 line with 18 homers and 56 RBI in just 60 games. That performance was good enough to get Atlanta to hand Ozuna a four year, $64 million deal that included an option for 2025. However, the next two years would not be kind as Ozuna dealt with a serious injury to his fingers, the aforementioned off-the-field troubles, and he posted a brutal .222/.278/.397 combined line when he did play in 2021 and 2022.

When Ozuna started 2023 slow yet again, calls grew for the Braves to move on from Ozuna altogether and we know the rest of the story from there. Ozuna got himself together and became one of the best designated hitters in baseball outside of Shohei Ohtani who is a mutant. With Ozuna in the last year of his contract, it is fair to start thinking about his future with the Braves and what it could look like.

2025 will tell us a lot about Marcell Ozuna's future with the Braves

Based purely on production the last couple of years, keeping Ozuna for the foreseeable future makes a lot of sense. Since the start of the 2023 season, Ozuna has slashed .289/.364/.552 and consistently been a 40 homer threat in the middle of Atlanta's lineup. Just shut up and pay the man his money, right?

Well, not exactly. The Braves have clearly decided that Ozuna has put his personal issues behind him, but the decision as to whether or not to extend him goes beyond that. Ozuna has no defensive value whatsoever, is 34 years old, and possesses the type of athleticism that doesn't age particularly well. It sounds like Ozuna has come into camp in really good shape this year, but that is far from a guarantee to continue to happen as he ages.

Despite the ups and downs, it does feel like the Braves and Ozuna want to stay together, but that doesn't mean a multi-year extension would be wise. To keep Ozuna, the team will almost certainly have to give him an AAV raise over the $16 million a year he is currently making. However, giving him that on a three or four year deal at his age and given his skillset shouldn't be in the cards even if he plays well in 2025 which, as we have seen, is not a sure thing.

Instead, Ozuna should probably get the Charlie Morton treatment where Atlanta gives him a one year deal with a club option year at the same rate and just go year to year from there. Such an arraignment would still allow Ozuna to get a nice payday in a place he loves to play while not exposing the Braves' payroll in the coming years to undue risk. Whether or not Ozuna would actually take that is a fair question, but Atlanta should still try to hold the line.

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