Craig Kimbrel returning to Braves isn’t the no-brainer fans think it is

Tampa Bay Rays v Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays v Baltimore Orioles | Mitchell Layton/GettyImages

Alex Anthopouls and company has been monitoring the waiver wire like a hawk for arms that can help the Braves navigate the numerous injuries to their pitching staff. Ian Anderson was picked up to provide depth during the Braves current West Coast road trip to high altitude ballparks. The bullpen in particular has certainly seen it's fair share of shuffling over the first month of the season.

Given the shakiness of some of the fringe bullpen arms, many fans have been clamoring for the return of Craig Kimbrel. The Braves all-time saves leader has appeared in six games between Double-A and Triple-A, and the results have been mostly fine (Kimbrel has a 2.84 ERA in just over six innings). However, the "stuff" doesn't scream Major League pitcher, and Braves fans need to be weary of a Kimbrel promotion.

Kimbrel is essentially looking like a one-pitch pitcher

Most of the updates we've gotten on Kimbrel during his minor league outings have offered some hope that the former All-Star could build arm strength as he progressed through April. Sadly, in his last outing the fastball has been in the Bryce Elder range in terms of velocity.

Last season Kimbrel averaged 93.9 mph on his four-seam fastball which is obviously a far cry from the heater he blew by hitters during his first stint with Atlanta. Hearing that he's struggling to hit 94 mph mark right now is a pretty big red flag. Because the fastball has become much more hittable, Kimbrel has began to lean on the knuckle curve more often. While the knuckle curve has been sharp enough Triple-A hitters out, when big league hitters can sit on one pitch, the results are generally bad for the pitcher.

On top of this, all the warning signs were very evident after his nightmare second half with Baltimore last season. Kimbrel gave up a ton of hard contact last season with the Orioles, and really struggled with his command. His 13.4 BB% ranked in the second percentile amongst pitchers in 2024.

Unfortunately, the Braves may not be in a position where they can afford to not at least take a chance on Kimbrel at the Major League level. However, given how frugal Alex Anthopoulos was with his money this offseason, guaranteeing $2 million to Kimbrel with a big league call-up may not be as certain as we once thought.

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