The Atlanta Braves are 14.5 games out in the NL East and 9.5 back in the Wild Card; it’s time to seriously consider selling at the trade deadline.
It’s 2025 which isn't like 2021, and the division isn’t such a mess like it was back then. The Mets and Phillies are stronger, the Nationals are better than anyone predicted, and Alex Anthopoulos is unlikely to catch lightning in a bottle again. He’s not going to blow everything up, but a few deals should happen.
To trade, who to trade, or not to trade…is that the Braves' question?
Fans are screaming to trade everyone from the Batboy to Blooper, but Alex Anthopoulos isn’t going to have a fire sale, trade away players that can’t be replaced, or take less than market value to move any player.
Keepers
Several players as untouchable, either because it makes no sense because they bring a bigger return at the deadline: Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Drake Baldwin.
Before a team trades a player, it has to know who takes his place. Matt Olson remains one of the top two defensive first basemen in the league and a 20-30 homer bat, and there isn’t a better first baseman available, ask the Red Sox. If you’re still pining for Freddie, get therapy now. The trade happened; no one wants to hear you whine, and it accomplishes nothing. As my dad would say, it’s time for you to get over it or outgrow it.
Sean Murphy is arguably a top-five catcher in the game, who’s on his way to an 18-homer, 50+ RBI season worth 3.0 WAR. The Braves would require a package including at least a Major League player, a 50-value prospect, and another player or two. A trade for Murphy is more likely during the postseason when multiple teams are bidding for his services.
Low or No Return
The Braves have a few players with little, if any, trade value, and Raisel Iglesias is on that list. He’s 35, in his walk year, and having the worst season of his career with $7.5 million remaining on his contract at the deadline. Unless he returns to something resembling his earlier form, no one is taking his contract.
Rafael Montero walked a lot of batters in April, but since the calendar flipped to May, he’s cut down on his walks. While his ERA sits at 5.19 now, his FIP is 3.73, and before allowing that painful homer on June 3, he posted a 4.11 ERA as a Brave. Teams needing bullpen help might take a flyer on him, but the return wouldn’t be anything to write home about.
Alex Verdugo is a relatively inexpensive rental that might interest a team desperate for outfield help, but he’s a platoon bat posting a .253/.309/.320/.629 line with no power. The return would be a warm body or cash.
Relievers
The Braves have a handful of relievers who will draw calls, but non-closer relievers don’t bring a big return. Pierce Johnson (34, remainder of his $7 million this year and a club option for $7 million in 2026) and Aaron Bummer (31.7, remainder of $3.5 million this year and $9 million in 2026).
The record and inexpensive 18 months of control for Johnson could return a pair of mid-level 45-50 value prospects, and while Bummer’s more of a middle-inning reliever, his control and ground ball rates could get a couple of 40-45 future value lottery tickets. However, their departure would leave the Braves with two holes to fill in the offseason, making them less likely to get dealt.
Dylan Lee is 31, on his way to a 2 rWAR season, and under team control via arbitration for three more years. Those traits make him the reliever who’d bring the highest return, as well as the reliever least likely to be traded.
Enyel De Los Santos is 29 and having the best year of his seven in the majors, pitching to a 2.93 ERA (3.25 FIP) while striking out 27 and walking 10 in his 27 2/3 IP. His value isn’t going to get much higher, and he’s in his walk year, making him the most likely to go.
Bryce Elder
Elder is pitching at his highest level to date, making it time to consider a trade before his value drops. He’d fit the Royals very well; Kaufman would eliminate some of his homers, and their infield defense would feast on his ground ball rate. The Braves might get someone like lefty David Shields or shortstop Javier Vaz for Elder and another body (Kelenic?).
Marcell Ozuna
Marcel Ozuna is 34, in his walk year, and inexpensive for second-best DH in the league. No one’s traded a DH playing at Ozuna’s level mid-season, so there’s no meaningful comp, but a win-now club would pay a lot to fill their need. Even as a rental, he’d bring a top-100 prospect and at least one good prospect, but there’s a catch. Ozuna’s a 10 and 5 player who loves being with the Braves and living in Atlanta, so he could block any trade.
Chris Sale
Sale is the most valuable player the team might trade. He’s a true top-of-the-rotation arm, pitching like an ace and under team control for another year.
Corbin Burnes returned a current top-100 and a former top-100 prospect for one year of control. If, for example, Boston called, the Braves should ask for Jarren Duran (Baseball’s pre-2022 # 92 prospect), shortstop Franklin Arias (Boston’s #3 and Baseball’s current #76 prospect), and SS/2B Mickey Romero (Boston’s #11 prospect). Marcelo Mayer would be nice, but the Sox have an outfield logjam, and Mayer’s their future shortstop.
That’s a Wrap
The Braves are more likely to buy and sell than anything else. A complete teardown is not in Alex Anthopoulos’ nature, nor does it suit the Braves’ current situation. However, the club is badly in need of better-quality everyday player prospects, and some kind of buy-sell makes sense.
Much depends on the next month. If the Braves’ brain trust believes the club can squeak into the Wildcard when we get to the All-Star Game, the club will try to catch lightning in a bottle again. If the team falls further in the standings, look for a busier deadline, but don’t expect a fire sale.