Through the first two games of the 2025 season, we've seen a noticeable difference in approach from the Atlanta Braves offseason compared to last season. Unfortunately, the club still finds themselves off to a 0-2 start despite some good baseball from the offense. As if he paralleled the team directly, Atlanta Braves top prospect Drake Baldwin is off to an inconceivably unlucky start to his big league career.
If you've watched the first two games you've likely come away impressed with Drake Baldwin's ABs despite the fact the catcher is still searching for his first base knock in the majors. How is this true? The beauty and yet maddening part of baseball is the answer.
Drake Baldwin with the unluckiest first two career games at the plate I’ve ever seen.
— Taylor Greenhut (@TGreenhutOD) March 29, 2025
0-7, 1 K, 1 BB, BUT:
96.4 mph line out (.330 xBA)
99.1 mph fly out (.490 xBA)
101.6 mph ground out (.460 xBA)
103.7 mph fly out (.810 xBA)
109.6 mph ground out (.420 xBA)
It’s coming…
Braves top prospect Drake Baldwin has been amongst MLB's unluckiest hitters to begin the season
Despite a very strong approach at the plate against some tough pitchers so far, Baldwin hasn't been able to collect his first hit at the Major League level. The top prospect has been as advertised thus far, catching a good game behind the plate all while showcasing his incredible plate discipline when he's in the batter's box.
On Opening Day, it looked as if Baldwin was going to hit a home run to emphatically announce his arrival, but a nice play by Padres centerfielder kept that from occurring. Last night Baldwin lined a 97 mph fastball off of San Diego closer, Robert Suarez's shin that somehow ricocheted directly to Luis Arraez for a groundout.
It's nothing but BAD luck for Baldwin through two games this season. His expected numbers are that of one of the best hitters in baseball through two games, meanwhile his actual numbers would leave you to believe the rookie isn't ready for the majors yet.
Baldwin has an expected batting average (xBA) of .360 and expected slugging (xSLG) of .917 through his first eight plate appearances in the show. Meanwhile his wOBA sits at a measly .086 compared to his impressive .553 xwOBA. For comparison sake, Austin Riley (probably the Braves' best hitter through two games) owns a .294 xBA, .708 xSLG, and .449 xwOBA.
Amongst players who have played just two games, Baldwin is tied for the league lead with five hard-hit baseballs (number of batted balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher). On top of that he's the only one in that group of five players who's carrying a 100% hard-hit rate and the only one still searching for his first hit in 2025. Thankfully, we can look at these numbers and know that good results are on the way for Baldwin so long as he keep hitting the baseball like his has to start 2025.