With all of the injuries in their starting rotation that are likely to impact at least the start of the 2026 season, the Atlanta Braves certainly need to add at least one starting pitcher this offseason. Banking on Chris Sale to both be awesome and healthy for another full season is too risky and with AJ Smith-Shawver certainly out for a big chunk (at least) of 2026 and guys like Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo Lopez, and Grant Holmes being question marks, Atlanta needs to act if they don't want to end up in another early season hole. However, at least one prominent name needs to not be on the table.
Some positions this offseason, like shortstop, are extremely shallow in terms available free agents which explains some of the urgency in trying to keep Ha-Seong Kim around. However, there seems to be plenty of free agent starting pitchers of varying degrees of desirability including some of the top free agents period including Framber Valdez and Michael King. One name that is certain to come up, though, is Padres starter Dylan Cease.
Being from Georgia and also a high profile name when it comes to free agency and trade rumors, Cease being considered an option for the Braves was inevitable. However, some developments in 2025 combined with some existing hurdles should convince Atlanta to steer clear of admittedly talented righthander.
Dylan Cease is a popular Braves target, but Atlanta should avoid breaking the bank for him
This is hardly the first time that Cease has been connected to the Braves the last couple of years. Coming off a strong first season with the Padres, the idea of Atlanta trading for one of Georgia's native sons made baseball sense as well as marketing sense at the time. However, the facts have changed since the start of the 2025 season.
In addition to still being represented by Scott Boras who the Braves famously don't deal with when they can help it because he demands top dollar for his clients, Cease had some troubling trends in 2025. In addition to his 4.55 ERA being extremely mediocre, Cease saw his walk rate go in the wrong direction and both his fastball and breaking stuff regressed in terms of run value. Generally speaking, spending top dollar on a pitcher is already suspect, let alone one that is coming off a down season.
Most of the rest of Cease's peripherals are at least defensible if not good, so targeting him as a free agent is fine in a vacuum. However, the Braves do not like shelling out big money for free agents including those that they let walk in recent years. What exactly is the argument for giving Cease a huge contract that he and Boras will almost certainly be seeking when he has been so inconsistent and especially if he has a qualifying offer attached to his free agency and would cost Atlanta a pick and international bonus money?
The most likely scenario that involves Cease coming to the Braves is if he searches the market, realizes that there is no appetite around the league to give him the deal he wants, and Atlanta scoops him up on a one-year deal after failing to address the rotation in other ways that doesn't result in the loss of a pick. That scenario faces some long odds and if Cease is willing to take a one year deal, he may just be better served to sign the QO. Unless his price comes way down, the Braves should just avoid Cease this offseason and put those resources elsewhere.