For some Atlanta Braves fans, this season has quite the rollercoaster. Atlanta was easily the best team in baseball for the first two months of the season, but followed that by being one of the absolute worst teams to close out the first half. The Braves have played well so far in the second half, but they also didn't make any major moves to bolster their roster at the trade deadline despite some obvious flaws.
However, it is important to look at the big picture sometimes and not get too bogged down in the details that make us anxious. Yes, there are some real concerns with the Braves as of this moment in time, but they are still in great shape when it comes to making the playoffs right now. In fact, they are pretty much as close as you can be to being a lock to get in at this point of the season.
Braves are near locks to get back to the playoffs, but some of their biggest rivals are on the brink
Yes, it is absolutely true that there is still about a month and a half of baseball left to be played in the regular season, and a lot can happen between now and the end of the season. As we have seen from the Braves (and really every team in the league) this year, this can get much better or far, far worse in a hurry. These odds are simply a guess based on all of the information available, and nothing more.
If we look at Fangraphs' current playoff odds as of August 13, the Braves have the fourth-best odds in all of baseball of making the playoffs at 99.7%, behind just the Dodgers (100%), Rays (100%), and Brewers (99.9%). The Phillies currently have a 69.1% chance of getting into the postseason and only a 3.9% chance of winning the division. FG currently has Atlanta's odds of claiming the NL East title again at 96.1%, and the Braves currently have a 44.1% chance of getting a bye in the first round.
Once you break down Baseball-Reference's current playoff odds (as of August 13 as well), the picture is even rosier for the Braves, who B-Ref has with a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 98.7% chance of winning the National League East. Philly's playoff odds are lower here at 52.5% after their recent struggles, and they have just a 1.1% chance of winning the division. The only other division rival that has anything resembling a realistic shot of getting to the postseason according to either FG or B-Ref is the Marlins, who have a 14.6% and 25.7% chance, respectively.
Considering how bad things got in June, it is nice to see the Braves in the driver's seat. We can all argue about whether or not their rotation, bullpen, and/or lineup will hold up well enough during the postseason, but the first step is actually getting there first. Based on the numbers, it looks like Atlanta is in a great spot to take that step.
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