While the Atlanta Braves' blowout loss to the Rockies on Sunday was horrifying, the fact remains that the Braves have won back to back series and that is a very welcome change of pace. Atlanta had been playing so poorly and if they didn't coming out of that stretch last week with a winning record, the path back to the playoffs for the Braves was likely to be insurmountable. However, the odds that the Braves make it to the playoffs are not zero just yet.
Unfortunately, things are not getting any easier the rest of the month of June. First, the first place Mets come to town starting Tuesday. After what should be a relatively tame series in Miami, the Braves then have to go to Citi Field to play the Mets on their home turf for four games. Atlanta then has to end the month with a home series against the Phillies. That is quite the gauntlet that, if the Braves can survive it, can keep their dwindling playoff odds alive.
Braves' playoff odds are dwindling, but hope does still remain
At 31-39 this season, talking about a potential run to the postseason in 2025 seems farfetched and that is hard to argue with. While the 1981 Royals and a couple teams during the COVID-shortened 2020 season made it to the playoffs after having a losing record at the All-Star break, it is extremely difficult to play in October when you spot your competition the first 81 games of the season.
Still, the Braves are not dead in the water just yet. Here is a look at the playoff odds for each team in the National League East from both Fangraphs as well as Baseball-Reference.
Fangraphs Playoff Odds | B-Ref Playoff Odds | |
|---|---|---|
New York Mets | 91.7% | 97.8% |
Philadelphia Phillies | 89.1% | 68.3% |
Atlanta Braves | 28.4% | 8.3% |
Washington Nationals | 0.1% | <0.1% |
Miami Marlins | 0.0% | <0.1% |
So the folks at Fangraphs are clearly more bullish on the Braves' playoff chances, but both models at least give Atlanta a chance thanks in large part to the the track record of the talent they have on their roster as well as a relatively tame schedule the rest of the season. Fangraphs having the Braves with a 28.4% does feel a bit high given the team's current situation whereas Baseball-Reference feels closer to correct, although could go higher if the month of June goes well and Atlanta can beat up on their division rivals.
These numbers are fun to think about, but none of them matter much if the Braves don't start winning consistently very soon. Atlanta clearly has the talent to play with just about anyone in MLB, but looking that way on paper doesn't mean squat if you don't show it on the field and the Braves are running out of time to do that.