When the Atlanta Braves traded for Tyler Mahle at the deadline this year, the move was met with a collective shrug from most fans. No one immediately hated the trade, but Mahle had not pitched well with the Giants, with a 5.13 ERA across 18 starts. More than that, many fans felt betrayed that Mahle was the Braves' only move to address a battered and struggling rotation. Oh, what a difference a couple of months makes.
Since being acquired by the Braves, Mahle has been (mostly) awesome. In his first eight starts with Atlanta, Mahle posted a 1.28 ERA and 2.86 FIP in 49.1 innings of work. The strikeout numbers were fine, but what stood out was his ability to pound the strike zone (just seven walks) without being punished too badly for it. Mahle's splitter was a big reason for that, as opposing hitters couldn't afford to sit fastball against Mahle with it as an option. With the ability to land his splitter for strikes, the rest of Mahle's arsenal really plays up.
Unfortunately, Mahle's ninth start for the Braves against the Reds last week did not go well. In addition to being a dud start, it also highlighted that Mahle's effectiveness lives and dies with his splitter.
Tyler Mahle's splitter failed him in his final regular-season start for the Braves, and that cannot happen in the playoffs
Now, we ARE talking about one start, so there is no reason (yet) to say Mahle's splitter is permanently AWOL. However, a closer look at many of the mistakes Mahle made against Cincinnati does raise some concerns or, at minimum, issues to look out for when he presumably takes on the Phillies this week in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.
The first homer that Mahle gave up was just an ill-advised fastball right over the plate, and those sorts of whoopsies happen. However, Cincinnati was giving Mahle fits and was not afraid of his splitter whatsoever. Elly De La Cruz hit one splitter thrown down Main Street and put it into orbit. Eugenio Suarez's two-run single that gave the Reds the lead was a splitter that caught too much of the plate.
Thankfully, odds are good that that last start was an anomaly. Mahle has just been too good to say otherwise, and his primary mission was to get some work in and not get hurt in that start against the Reds. The stakes are vastly different this time against the Phillies, so it stands to reason that he will pitch differently (and hopefully better). The goal is that his performance in the Wild Card round more closely mirrors the last time Mahle faced the Phillies in back-to-back starts on September 6 and 12, where he gave up just one earned run in 13 innings of work.
In case you are wondering, yes...his splitter was quite good in both of those previous starts.
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