When the Atlanta Braves announced that they were going to use an opener against the Cardinals, it certainly raised some eyebrows. Not only is it not a strategy that the Braves have employed much at all in recent years, it also comes at a time when there were already concerns about JR Ritchie's ability to pitch out of the rotation. A certain amount of skepticism regarding changing Ritchie's routine was absolutely warranted.
However, the strategy mostly worked out. Sure, Danny Young wasn't particularly good as an opener (to put it kindly), but Ritchie came in and gave the Braves 4.1 quality innings where he only gave up one hit and one earned run. Mission accomplished, right?
Well, sort of. The result was good, and Ritchie himself said that the "start" was a good step in the right direction. However, a fundamental problem remains that as long as his chase rate is as bad as it currently is, Ritchie won’t get the swing-and-miss he needs or be able to keep his walk rate down enough to stick around as a starter in the big leagues.
JR Ritchie isn't fooling anyone with his pitches out of the zone, and that is a problem for the Braves
It has been obvious for a while that Ritchie has a problem with walks, which one reason why he has been sent back and forth from Gwinnett. It doesn't take a rocket surgeon (not a typo) to understand that a 5.5 BB/9 walk rate isn't sustainable in the majors. However, a big reason why Ritchie's walk rate isn't good is that MLB hitters are just not chasing his pitches out of the zone.
With a chase rate in the bottom 10th-percentile in the majors, Ritchie is going to have a tough time. Being forced to throw strikes to get batters to swing at all is a dangerous game to play. You want to be able to throw strikes when you need to, but you need hitters to guess wrong as well on pitches out of the zone. Otherwise, you just have to hope to keep the ball on the ground and/or hope your defense behind you bails you out.
In short, when Ritchie has tried to get hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone (especially his breaking stuff), hitters aren't biting. That could mean that he is tipping his pitches and explain why some of his pitches (changeup, cutter) perform so much worse than others. Whatever the cause, Ritchie will have to make some adjustments to subvert hitters' expectations and make them respect what he is throwing more. Otherwise, they are going to sit on something they know they can hit and spit on everything else.
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