No one really thought that the Atlanta Braves were going to be in contention for a high draft pick in the 2026 MLB Draft. Most thought that, like most years since 2018, the Braves would be bound for the playoffs and the draft lottery wouldn't impact them whatsoever. However, after one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory, the Braves find themselves right in the mix for the top overall pick in next year's draft.
With the installation of the MLB Draft Lottery, things are a little different than they used to be in terms of determining the draft order each year. Instead of the order being only determined by where teams finish each season, all non-playoff teams are entered into a lottery for the top six picks in the draft with the teams with the worse records having better odds. This has led to some to shocking upsets in recent years, most notably the Guardians winning the #1 pick in 2024 despite only having around a 2% chance to do so.
There are some other idiosyncrasies with the draft lottery and the draft, some that don't impact the Braves much this year like the rules around previous lottery winners eligibility and others that could like the Prospect Promotion Incentive (more on that shortly). However, one thing is very clear and that is Atlanta has a very, very good chance at picking pretty high in the 2026 MLB Draft.
Braves odds of a high pick in the 2026 MLB Draft are looking increasingly good
The exact percentages in terms of the odds in the lottery itself aren't known yet because ties can mess the math up and there are a lot of scenarios where the rankings could change significantly at the moment. What we know as of September 9 is that the Braves have the fourth worst record in baseball amongst lottery-eligible teams and, according Tankathon which tracks MLB lottery position odds, they have a 11.5% chance of getting the first overall pick. "Ahead" of them are the White Sox, Pirates, and Twins with the Athletics, Marlins, and Orioles right "behind" them.
Now, the White Sox are going to have the best odds by the end of the season barring something wild happening. At 55-89, Chicago has a full nine games in hand for the top spot with the somehow far worse Rockies who are not eligible for a lottery pick next year because they have had two lottery picks in a row. However, Atlanta is in that group of six teams that are within a couple of games ahead of each other and how that shakes out could give the Braves as high as the second-best odds to all the way down to seventh with a 4.14% chance. In short, a lot is at stake the rest of the way.
The Braves in particular could really use a high draft pick next year. Atlanta's farm system is in a bad way at the moment and with some really high end shortstop prospects available in next year's class, the Braves could address a severe organizational need if they pick high enough. Having a high draft pick also means that Atlanta would have a much higher draft bonus pool than usual, especially if catcher Drake Baldwin can win Rookie of the Year and net the Braves an extra draft pick. That sort of bonus pool could not only allow Atlanta to secure a top end talent with their first pick, but to also flex their financial might for a change and add multiple high end players.
Watching the Braves lose isn't fun and it is clear that they are still trying to compete every night. Hopefully it is somewhat comforting for fans that even on days when they fall short like they have so often in 2025, there is a potential silver lining when looking to the future here.