The Atlanta Braves are running out of ways to call this “bad luck” without sounding like they’re trying to convince themselves.
Because the latest wave of injuries isn’t some random depth guys tweaking a hamstring. It’s Hurston Waldrep and Spencer Schwellenbach — two arms the organization needs to matter in 2026 — both dealing with right elbow issues that required arthroscopic procedures before the season even started. Waldrep is scheduled for Feb. 23 to have loose bodies removed, and Schwellenbach already had a procedure on Feb. 18 to remove bone spurs, with both being treated as “maybe summer” returns and no real timetable promised.
Braves’ rotation optimism just took a harsh hit before the season even started
That’s a mirror moment. Because the uncomfortable part isn’t simply that elbows are fragile in modern baseball. It’s how predictable this has started to feel in Atlanta. It’s like the Braves have built a pitching pipeline designed to produce maximum-intent stuff, and then are surprised when the bill shows up with interest.
Waldrep is the clearest example. He showed up throwing 99 in live BP, everyone’s eyes got big, and then the excitement turned into an MRI and a trip to Dr. Keith Meister. Walt Weiss basically shrugged at the baseball reality of it: “There’s some things in there that shouldn’t be there,” and noted it’s “fairly common with pitchers.” That’s honest! But that's also the point. If it’s common, then your plan can’t be “hope we’re the exception.”
And that’s where the Braves deserve some heat. The organization has known all winter that Reynaldo López is coming off shoulder surgery and that Grant Holmes finished 2025 dealing with an elbow issue. MLB.com even framed it plainly: the uncertainty was enough to “necessitate adding a starting pitcher,” and yet they still came into camp thin enough that losing Schwellenbach and Waldrep instantly changes the reality of their entire spring.
This isn’t happening in isolation. Spencer Strider already had his own elbow saga recently. AJ Smith-Shawver already went through Tommy John. Joe Jiménez is still a question mark after knee surgery and a cleanup procedure, with no timetable attached. At a certain point, it stops being a string of unfortunate events and starts being an organizational stress test you keep failing.
The Braves can’t keep treating rotation insurance like a luxury item. Not with this pitching attrition, and not if the goal is October baseball that doesn’t require full health and a prayer. It means Atlanta has to be willing to pay for boring innings.
Most of all, it means acknowledging the Braves aren’t just battling injuries. They’re battling the predictability of their own pitching reality. And until they plan like that’s true, the calendar is going to keep beating them to the punch.