When Bryce Harper hit his tape measure home run off of Tyler Mahle in the first inning Saturday, it felt like the Atlanta Braves might be in for a long night. Harper made sure to get his money's worth as well, as he took almost 35 seconds to round the bases.
Unfortunately for him and the Phillies, Mahle continued to pitch well, and the Braves' offense had other plans. Ronald Acuña Jr. hit a moonshot of his own to start the fourth inning, and it opened the floodgates. Atlanta's offense rattled off eight runs in the fourth inning after struggling to get anything going against Tim Mayza. Mayza opened the game after Jesus Luzardo was scratched from his scheduled start due to shoulder stiffness.
Phillies manager Don Mattingly made the mistake of bringing in former Mets pitcher Brooks Raley. Raley had a chance to get out of the inning after he struck out Matt Olson for the second out of the inning. But he was lifted from the game after walking Albies and allowing a single to Michael Harris II.
Grant Holman checked into the game next, and that's where things fell apart. The Braves' offense exploded and took an 8-1 lead over the Phillies. Acuña's homer was the catalyst for that, as he continues to absolutely terrorize the Phillies. Atlanta's superstar has a .378 average with four home runs and a 1.184 OPS in 12 games against them in 2026. Three of those homers came in the last six games against Philly. He's certainly approaching Chipper Jones-against-the-Mets territory.
Braves drop their NL East magic number to 7 after demolition of the Phillies
After it was all said and done, the Braves routed the Phillies 12-2, pushing their division lead to six games. Atlanta's magic number to make the playoffs dropped to 6, with their magic number to win the division now at 7. 13 games remain on the schedule after Saturday's victory. The chance of Philly winning the division is very low, especially with Atlanta owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over their rivals.
A lot would have to go wrong for the Braves to lose the division lead over the next 13 games. They'll finish out their three-game set with the Phillies on Sunday afternoon. After that, Atlanta will see the Cubs, Astros, Reds, and Marlins. They have winning records against three of these teams, with the exception of the Astros, as Atlanta hasn't played them yet in 2026. Atlanta is 2-1 against the Cubs and Reds, while they're 8-2 against the Marlins.
It should be smooth sailing for the Braves from this point. Philly would need the Braves to really screw things up to have any real shot at the division. Let's assume the Braves lose the series finale against the Phillies on Sunday. That puts the division lead at five games. Atlanta could go .500 the rest of the way and still be very, very likely to win the division.
All of the pressure is on the Phillies, who have a tough final week of the season. They'll take on the Nationals and Mets next. Those two series are easily winnable for Philly, but their final six games are against the Brewers and Rays. Two of the best teams in baseball.
The best chance the Phillies have is to sweep the Nats/Mets and hope the Braves lose their next six games. That is very unlikely to happen. Everything right now works in Atlanta's favor, and the way the offense has looked recently, the division is essentially wrapped up.
Add us as a preferred source on Google