The Atlanta Braves mercifully averted a sweep at the hands of the Rays on Thursday thanks to yet another improbable gem courtesy of Martin Perez. At this point, it is best not to try to understand it and just enjoy the ride. That continues a trend where the Braves have been doing just enough during the most critical part of their schedule to survive and maintain their lead in the NL East.
That was not the only development on Thursday, however. Not only did the Braves lose Lane Thomas to injury right before the game, but the Phillies also lost to the Astros. With Atlanta winning and Philly faltering ahead of the appointment-level series between the two squads this weekend, the Braves' magic number to make the playoffs is now in single digits, and the chances of reclaiming the division are getting very, very high.
Today's run recap ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/7QwgbmNdRA
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) September 10, 2026
Braves' magic number to make the playoffs now sits at 8 as NL East title odds hit new highs
There is still a lot of baseball left to be played, and there are just enough teams still in contention to make figuring out clinching scenarios and magic numbers tricky. The short answer is that as of the morning of September 11, the Braves' current magic number is 8 to make the playoffs and 11 to win the NL East. The two teams to watch first are the Padres and Diamondbacks, as they are fighting over the last NL Wild Card spot. That race is close enough that you will probably want to root for both of them to lose every night for now (although the Padres getting bumped out would probably be better).
As for when the Braves could clinch the NL East or a playoff spot, we are still a bit too far out. If the Braves sweep the Phillies this weekend (which is unlikely), that would put Atlanta's division lead at seven games while owning the tiebreaker. That would introduce some possible, but fringe, clinching scenarios for late next week, but it is more likely that we will have to wait for the final two weeks of the season. Fangraphs currently has the Braves' odds of winning the NL East at 93%, and that number likely goes much higher if Atlanta avoids getting swept this weekend.
Clinching a playoff spot is much easier, but the Braves still need some help. With a magic number of eight, Atlanta has to keep winning, and the Diamondbacks have to have trouble with the Rangers, Marlins, and Yankees for Atlanta to punch their ticket to the playoffs next week. Not impossible, but still pretty tough, with the Braves having to deal with the Phillies, Cubs, and Astros back-to-back-to-back.
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