The Atlanta Braves have taken great pains to trim their payroll this offseason so far. Right off the rip, the Braves traded Jorge Soler to free up the remaining $26 million left on his deal and Atlanta has since gone on to decline Travis d'Arnaud's option, restructure Bummer and Lopez's deals, and then non-tender a gaggle of players before the deadline last week. The question lately has now turned to what the Braves are going to do with these savings?
So far this offseason, there have been a number of players connected to the Braves including free agent Willy Adames as well as arguably the top player on the trade market in Garrett Crochet. The potential offseason targets for Atlanta all would cost varying degrees of 2025 dollars, but most would make the Braves' payroll cuts make more sense.
However, MLB insider Ken Rosenthal added an interesting observations to Atlanta's moves as he thinks that the Braves could be looking to get under the luxury tax which, if true, is going to be pretty disappointing for a lot of fans.
Latest notes:
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 25, 2024
*What to make of Braves’ cost-cutting moves
*Inside the Patrick Sandoval non-tender
*Nationals in search of next Jayson Werthhttps://t.co/o6Y77ZnAFO
Even if the Braves want to get under the luxury tax, that doesn't mean they won't make a splash
The rationale for the Braves wanting to getting under the luxury tax threshold is pretty straightforward. Each successive year a team goes over the luxury tax, the amount of that tax goes up. Atlanta has been over the last two seasons which means that the tax bill in 2025 if they go over again would be a whopping 50% on any overages. If the Braves stay under the tax threshold, those penalties are reset for subsequent years.
Those kinds of financial gymnastics/penny pinching almost universally never goes well with Braves fans and, if true, would significant change this offseason's plans. If the Braves wanted to bring back Max Fried or sign Willy Adames without being in the penalty, moving a contract like Raisel Iglesias' may be necessary.
However, not every significant deal that the Braves could make be off the table. Assuming the Braves actually could pull off a Crochet trade, his money wouldn't impact Atlanta's ability to avoid paying the competitive balance tax as he is only estimated to get around $3 million in arbitration. Ha-Seong Kim would be a bit more costly, but still would probably work. An arm like Nathan Eovaldi would be pushing it, but could also potentially still work even though it would make making moves at the trade deadline a bit tricky.
Given the Braves' current competitive window, it feels unlikely that Alex Anthopoulos is just going let the offseason pass him by without trying to make a real push to upgrade the roster. Atlanta may want to not pay the luxury tax again, but the Braves know that they have a World Series contender on their hands and the idea that they will sit the offseason out over a few million just doesn't pass the smell test. If anything, the Braves might be leaking this luxury tax nonsense themselves as a negotiating tactic to cut through the crap and create some leverage in talks.