While the 2026 season has certainly started off better for the Atlanta Braves than the 2025 season, it appears that the team is already carrying over an undesirable trend from last season.
In 2025, the Braves disastrous 76-86 record was partially due to Atlanta's lack of success in one-run games, where they went 21-35, second-worst in MLB. While the Braves are over .500 in their first 11 games, a far more desirable record than last year's 2-9 record, the club still hasn't figured out their one-run woes.
Record in 1-Run Games pic.twitter.com/q87RZGcQaS
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) April 7, 2026
Braves still can't win one-run games this season after it cost them in 2025
Last season, the Braves were exceptionally bad in games decided by one run. If the Braves record in these games was reversed last season, they would've finished out the season with 90 wins, which would have easily landed them a playoff spot.
Through Monday, Atlanta's 6-5 record was not necessarily reflective of how their offense and pitching have performed, as the team's +23 run differential is the fourth-best in the majors. While part of that is thanks to a 17-2 victory in the desert, the other five Braves victories have been fairly decisive, with all but one being by four or more runs.
Outside of their 15 run victory in the desert, the Braves have a +20 run differential in their victories thanks to a solid offense and outstanding pitching.
The losses, however, have been much closer. The first two losses of the season were by three runs, while the back-to-back losses against the Diamondbacks were by one run. In total, the run differential in the Braves five losses is 12 runs.
MLB.com puts the Braves expected win-loss total at 8-3, a two game swing. Of course, while the season is still very young, it's not comforting to see a worrying trend from last season carry over, especially when other NL East teams like the Marlins and Phillies have fared well in the same situations.
With the Phillies and Mets having star-filled rosters built for success, Atlanta can't afford to continue losing close games at the rate they did last season.