The last two seasons have been extraordinary disappointments for the Atlanta Braves and their fans. Entering both seasons, the Braves were expected to compete for a deep postseason run, and in both cases, injuries and regression completely derailed them. It is hard not to feel that both seasons were missed opportunities, but it also gives hope that what ails Atlanta is temporary.
At least, the Braves are hoping that the latter is true. No one denies that the Braves have one of the more talented rosters in baseball. However, at some point, this Braves squad is going to have to prove that they can actually stay on the field enough to take full advantage of that talent.
For the moment, the projection systems still seem to like the Braves ahead of the 2026 season. Despite the horrific endings to the last two seasons, Fangraphs is still projecting the Braves to have the best playoff odds in the entire NL East, which...well, would be a nice change of pace.
Braves need to return to form if they are going to prove Fangraphs' 2026 projection true
One has to understand how projections work to full grasp how Atlanta could have landed with the division's best odds. These data models take the totality of the data on players and teams over a period of time, compare them to similar sorts of players/teams, and then generate an output. While it is fun to say that ZiPS creator and producer Dan Szymborski loves or hates certain teams based on the ZiPS numbers, the fact is that the numbers are the numbers, and they are either right or wrong. In short, be nicer to Szym.
However, things are going to start changing when it comes to projection systems before too long. These models can write off one injury-marred or underwhelming season as an outlier when making their projections. Once there is more and more data that points to those injuries and underperformances being par for the course, the projections will reflect that.
Of course, if Fangraphs is wrong with their projection and Atlanta does see another slide in 2026, their future projections looking rough will be the least of their concerns. The Braves simply have to get more from their established stars on both sides of the ball and stay on the field. The rest should take care of itself if they can pull those two things off, because if not, their future is going to look very cloudy on a number of levels.