When the Atlanta Braves underperformed their projections in 2024 and barely snuck into the playoffs, their projections for the 2025 season remained bullish. However, after their second-straight disappointing season which featured their first playoff absence since 2017, FanGraphs' ZiPS is much less optimistic for the team in 2026.
Between low expectations for their two Curaçao natives and conservative predictions for a few stars, the 2026 Braves ZiPS projections do not look promising.
2026 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves https://t.co/KOSU5VBeuH
— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) December 1, 2025
2026 Braves ZiPS projections indicate the team has work to do
Compared to 2025, a few Braves players' projections have remained steady. Both Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson are projected for the same exact WAR that they were projected for prior to the 2025 season (5.3 and 3.6 respectively). Acuña underperformed his projections last year with a 3.6 fWAR (though this is more due to time missed to injury), while Matt Olson overperformed his projections with a 4.7 fWAR.
ZiPS is lower on Michael Harris II and Austin Riley than it was last season, knocking off over a full WAR for both players, but the two are still seen as 3.5+ WAR players in the eyes of the projection models.
The catchers, thanks to Drake Baldwin's impressive Rookie of the Year campaign, are still viewed as a powerhouse, with Baldwin and Murphy pegged at 4.7 WAR for 2026. The the pair also contribute to the team's DH projections, as the Braves are predicted to get 1.7 WAR out of the spot.
Where the position players likely disappoint are with Jurickson Profar and Ozzie Albies. Profar was the Braves big offseason addition last year, and he quickly became a Braves villian when he was suspended four games into the season. When he came back, he produced, ending the season with 1.3 fWAR and a 122 wRC+, but ZiPS isn't optimistic that he'll continue this, with the models projecting a 1.4 WAR season from the 33-year-old switch hitter.
Albies has been a staple of the Braves since debuting in 2017, but his performance has declined over the last two seasons, becoming a slightly below-average bat with a below-average glove. ZiPS has taken note and predicts a 2.0 WAR season from the 29-year-old, a 1.5 WAR step back from their predictions last year.
Neither Albies nor Profar are expected to be the worst position player among the Braves starters, with that honor going to Mauricio Dubón or whoever will be the club's starting shortstop.
On the pitching front, ZiPS is slightly more conservative on Chris Sale than it was in 2025, projecting a 3.9 WAR season from the 2024 Cy Young winner, compared to the 4.5 WAR it predicted last season. Sale had a 3.6 fWAR despite only making 21 appearances.
The Spencers (Strider and Schwellenbach) are both projected to be above-average starters at 2.6 WAR and 3.5 WAR, while Hurston Waldrep and Reynaldo Lopez are projected to right around 2 WAR. ZiPS sees both Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder as below replacement.
The bullpen is projected at 2.9 WAR, 1.5 WAR lower than their 2025 projections, but 1.6 WAR higher than their actual 2025 performance. The bullpen is led by re-signed closer Raisel Iglesias and Dylan Lee, but the rest of the pen is questionable thanks to injury or simply performance.
Overall, ZiPS is far lower on the Braves going into 2026 than they were in 2025, with the team projected to be more like an 84-88 win team, according to ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski. Of course, this would be an improvement from the 2025 team, but would continue a disappointing trajectory of a franchise that once looked like a juggernaut if the projections are actually realized.