While it is "only" June, the lead that the Atlanta Braves have built in the NL East so far is pretty impressive. Thanks in part to the Phillies' terrible start to the season and the Mets being one of the worst-run organizations in all of baseball, the Braves' insane start to the 2026 season has yielded a 9.5-game lead in the division. Some will argue that it is too early for that to matter, but history may suggest otherwise.
No one should be arguing that the division race is already locked up. All it would take is a couple more injuries to key players or for a division rival to get red-hot while the Braves slump a bit to turn this into a real race again. However, if history is any indication, Atlanta is very likely to parlay their current lead into a spot in the postseason.
The Braves have never blown a lead as big as the one they currently have in the NL East
Now, we know this is inviting the jinx to end all jinxes. Rest assured that knocking on wood did happen while this article was being written. To be safe, we will explore making a voodoo doll of Kyle Schwarber and whatever else is necessary to keep the bad vibes away.
However, 9.5 games IS a big lead, and the number of collapses across baseball that have been that big is not a long list. The closest example we have for the Braves was the disastrous 2011 collapse when Atlanta blew an 8.5 game lead, but that was in the NL Wild Card race. If one thinks about it, it actually makes sense as the Braves have typically been the ones to chase down teams like the Mets at the end of the season, not the other way around, and Atlanta HAS won a lot of division titles. If Atlanta is bad, they usually start and stay that way.
Of course, there is a first time for everything, and it isn't out of the realm of possibility that things could go sideways for Atlanta. If something were to happen to Iron Man Matt Olson or if the pitching staff loses anyone else, things could get far more interesting than Braves fans would want. Thankfully, this Braves squad seems to have a knack for rising to the challenge when obstacles present themselves, and they are slowly getting healthier. If anything, it seems possible that this lead of theirs could grow, not shrink.
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