Last week’s signing of Jurickson Profar filled the hole in left field at a price that would allow the Atlanta Braves to add a pitcher this offseason.
The Braves have looked for pitching that fit their budget since the offseason began without success. With under a month to go before pitchers and catchers report, available free agents will want to find a home. The need to sign and get a complete Spring Training in before the season begins could lead to a pitcher accepting a shorter deal, less money, or both.
Will the Braves use their money for a starter, a reliever, or both?
In last week’s newsletter, Mark Bowman suggested that the Braves would add a pitcher, and it would be a relief pitcher. It’s easy to see why he feels that way, but adding a starter would be cool, too.
Fangraphs projects the Braves’ rotation to include Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, Grant Holmes, and Ian Anderson. Holmes and Anderson are holding a seat for Spencer Strider while battling to grab the job as the fifth starter. I believe Holmes is better used from the pen, and I doubt Anderson's stuff is good enough to win and keep the fifth starter role.
One of the bulls is missing from the Braves’ Pen
Fangraphs’ projected bullpen includes righties Pierce Johnson, Daysbel Hernández, Rule 5 pickup Anderson Pilar, and closer Raisel Iglesias, and lefties Aaron Bummer, Dylan Lee, Angel Perdomo, and Dylan Dodd.
Without Joe Jiménez, the Braves plan to use the combination of Hernández and Johnson to fill the setup role with Bummer and Lee as the primary lefties. That sounds reasonable but Pilar, Perdomo, and Dodd are...problematic at best.
Pilar moved quickly up the Marlins' system last year, appearing in six games in A+ ball, 23 games in AA, and eight games in AAA. He’s a strikeout pitcher who didn’t walk many in the minors; if that translates to the majors, he'll be valuable, but he pitches as 27 next year without ever facing a Major League batter.
Angel Perdomo hasn’t pitched since 2023 and should start the year in AAA, but he's out of minor league options. Unless he's injured, he has to remain on the 26-man roster, but it’s hard to see him jumping into the majors and being immediately effective.
What can I say about Dodd? He pitched to a 5.35 ERA – 4.90 FIP – in AAA last year and has an option left, so, barring a breakout Spring Training, he should start there this year.
So, who's available to fill the Braves' needs?
Spencer for hire
Spencer Turnbull (32) missed a month at the start of the 2021 season with a COVID-19 diagnosis, returned at the end of April, and pitched to a 2.88 ERA in nine starts for Detroit before his UCL gave out. He decided against surgery, rehabbed during 2022, made seven starts in 2023, and had to have surgery in June.
He made six starts for the Phillies in 2024, pitching to a 1.67 ERA in 32 1/3 IP, striking out 36, and walking 10 before the Phillies moved him to the pen. He appeared in 11 games and threw 22 innings in relief, striking out 22 and walking 10 before a strained lat ended his season.
Turnbull fits nicely at the back of the rotation and adds innings the Braves will surely need this year. MLBT projects him for a one-year deal at $7M.
Jakob with a K
Righty Jakob Junis (33) suffered a series of back and neck injuries in his career and missed the start of 2024 with a shoulder impingement. When he returned was lights out, throwing 22 innings from the pen in nine appearances for the Brewers in June and July before the Crew traded him to the Reds for Frankie Montas at the deadline.
His first two appearances for the Reds came in blowouts and allowed three runs in each. However, in his next 12 games (five starts), he pitched to a 1.66 ERA -2.90 FIP- in 38 IP, striking out 29 and walking two.
Something around one year at $5M should be enough to sign Junis.
Not Columbo, but just as crafty
Danny Coulombe (35) became an overnight success in 2023, 10 years after becoming a pro. In 51+ innings over 61 appearances, Coulombe had 48 scoreless appearances while pitching to a 2.81 ERA - 2.81FIP- for the Orioles, striking out 58 and walking 12 and recording two saves.
He started 2024 on fire, throwing 26 innings in 29 games, striking out 28, and walking three while pitching to a 2.42 ERA before feeling something in his elbow. and requiring surgery to remove bone chips. He returned to make four appearances and throw 3 2/3 scoreless innings in September and the last two outs of the Wildcard Game against the Royals.
Coulombe’s Statcast page shows he didn’t qualify for the ERA title, but click back to his 2023 percentile rankings, and you’ll see virtually the same numbers in eye-popping color. He's a sneaky good bullpen arm, likely available for one year and $2.5M.
That’s A Wrap
The Atlanta Braves could strengthen their pen by grabbing Turnbull (or Junis for less $$$) and Coulombe and still remain under the CBT threshold. Remember that the CBT is about more than money; it affects draft picks and the international signing pool, both of which are essential to replenishing the farm system. It’s also possible to strengthen the bullpen with players in the system.
The Braves traded for Davis Daniel – 27 9n June - (no, the name isn’t backward) in December. He started in the Angels system, but his minor-league numbers (401K, 112 BB in 364 2/3 IP) and age suggest reliever. We’ll see AJ Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder, and Drew Hackenberg in one role or another as well, but I believe the Braves want a veteran starter to swallow innings rather than disrupt the progress of pitchers who aren’t ready for the bright lights yet.