The Atlanta Braves are off to a great start to the 2026 season with a 12-7 record. If you extrapolate that winning percentage over a 162-game season, that would give the Braves 102-103 wins for the season, which, while not impossible, is pretty unlikely. That is similar to some of the hot streaks we are seeing from Braves players to start the season.
What some guys are doing feels real. It matches up with what they have done in the past, and the underlying metrics don't show excessive amounts of good fortune. For others, they should just count their blessings that they have gotten away with it so far and brace themselves for a crash back to earth.
Here are the Braves whose strong early-season performances are (or are not) going to last
Whether or not what a player is doing is sustainable shouldn't be considered a knock against a guy. In most cases here, these would still be valuable players to the Braves even if they weren't playing out of their minds. There is also always room for metrics to improve and adjustments to take root. Things can and will change, but here is a look at the Braves players that can keep their hot starts up, as well as a couple that probably won't.
Dominic Smith
It would be extraordinarily easy to claim that Dom Smith won't be able to sustain what he is doing, and frankly, asking the guy to keep hitting .381 is a stretch. However, Smith had a better year at the plate than people give him credit for in 2025 with the Giants; the Braves are managing his usage perfectly, and his expected stats all point to what he is doing has been pretty real.
Smith won't keep hitting .381, but it would not be shocking to see him maintain a high OPS if Atlanta continues to put him in a position to succeed. The guy can just flat out hit, and as long as he can keep getting extra-base hits and draw a few more walks to offset the expected drop-off in his average, Smith might just be in store for an awesome season.
Verdict: Pretty sustainable (we are as surprised as you are)
Mauricio Dubon
On the flip side, we have Mauricio Dubon. Over the previous three seasons with the Astros, Dubon averaged a .677 OPS despite having passable-looking batting averages. This year, he has looked like a completely different hitter, boasting an .887 OPS through his first 70 plate appearances.
It wouldn't be that shocking if Dubon ended up with a better-than-usual offensive season at the end of the day, but there is just no way it can stay THIS good. Dubon's lack of power still shows up in his batted ball metrics, and between that and his usual reluctance to draw walks, you have the recipe for regression on the horizon.
Verdict: Not sustainable, but happy to enjoy the ride while it lasts
Ozzie Albies
Given everything that Ozzie Albies has been through the last few years, it was understandable that some fans had already begun to write him off. The injuries just kept coming, and the deterioration of his physical ability was as clear as day. For many, we were watching Albies' decline in real-time, and it was pretty sad.
However, Albies has turned back the clock so far this season, and everything points to him being a very similar player to what he has always been. He still doesn't have much bat speed and doesn't consistently hit the ball hard, but we are seeing Albies get back to basics and make contact to all fields that doesn't only involve weak pop-ups. We have seen all of these numbers, including power production, before from him, so we will give Albies the benefit of the doubt and say this is a return to form instead of a statistical outlier.
Verdict: Sustainable. Good to see Ozzie look more like his old self again.
Bryce Elder
We haven't always been kind to Bryce Elder, and for good reason. He was a pitch-to-contact pitcher that gave up hard contact, didn't miss bats, and could struggle to find the strike zone with his middling stuff. However, things have changed in 2026.
All of his stuff has ticked up with his slider being particularly awesome again. Many thought that his peak was the first half of the 2023 season when he made the All-Star Game, but this version of Elder is a strictly better pitcher than even that. He is striking guys out, getting weak ground balls, and pitching deep into games. All of it passes the eye test as well. Yes, we are as confused as you are, but we aren't going to argue with a good thing.
Verdict: Sustainable. At this point, we just have to accept that this is Elder's world and we are just living in it.
Reynaldo Lopez
Most of the discourse around Reynaldo Lopez lately centered around his brawl with Jorge Soler that resulted in both players missing minimal time. However, something that isn't being discussed enough is that his stuff has dropped off considerably from where it once was.
In 2024, his first season back in the rotation, Lopez averaged 95.5 mph with his fastball, and opposing hitter hit .167 against his slider, which had a 44.5 % whiff rate. Coming back from a shoulder injury this year, Lopez is only averaging 94 mph with his heater, and his slider only has a 35.7% whiff rate and opposing hitters are hitting .294 against it. He may have a 2.18 ERA for the moment, but it isn't going to stay that way.
Verdict: Not sustainable. At this point, it is fair to wonder if he needs to stay in the rotation long-term.
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