Why the Braves Traded William Contreras

In a shocking move, the Atlanta Braves traded All-Star catcher, William Contreras on Monday afternoon.

William Contreras had an incredible season this past year with Atlanta, hitting .278/./354/.506, good for a 138 wRC+. Between catcher and DH, the young catcher was worth 2.4 fWAR.

While most Braves fans have spent the early offseason wondering whether Dansby Swanson was going to return or how the Braves could improve the outfield, Alex Anthopoulos pulled a stunning move to upgrade a position they were already one of the best in the league in.

Sean Murphy is one of the best catchers in the league, but moving a young, cost-controlled All-Star is a questionable move. Clearly, however, Anthopoulos saw room for improvement, but why did they move William Contreras?

Why the Braves traded William Contreras

On the surface, trading Contreras seems a little odd. After all, even with the Braves acquiring Murphy, having the DH would have allowed the young backstop to have plenty of PAs, especially if the other options are Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario.

Additionally, while Contreras benefitted from a reasonably high .344 BABIP, he smoked the cover off the ball. He was in the 76th percentile in average exit velocity, 84th percentile in HardHit%, and 90th in xSLG. On top of this, Wild Bill had a 10.4% walk rate. This is not a player you’d sell off believing they were overperforming. Except, William Contreras was, at least in a way.

Recently I did an article that explored whether or not Michael Harris’s 2022 was believable. In it, I found that Harris was the third-highest overachiever on the team by different metrics. Well, Contreras was also high on those lists.

He was the highest over-performer by xBA (.278 BA vs. .243 xBA) and overperformed his xSLG as well (.506 SLG vs. .479 xSLG). These are not bad, of course, but they greatly differ from his actual outputs.  If Contreras hit more in line with his inputs, you’d probably have a player who was 15% – 20% better than league average instead of a guy who was closer to 40%.

Additionally, Contreras, despite making major improvements behind the plate, was still a below-average fielder behind the plate. He was in the 20th percentile in framing and the 50th percentile in pop time. Sean Murphy, on the other hand, who the Braves acquired today, was in the 96th percentile in pop time and in the 86th percentile in framing. While Murphy doesn’t hit the ball as hard as Contreras, their xwOBAs were only .003 off (Contreras’s .347 xwOBA vs. Murphy’s .344).

Along with Travis d’Arnaud, who has an option for 2024, the Braves clearly feel that Murphy, who is under team control until 2026, will be a significant upgrade on defense without sacrificing much on offense.

In a vacuum, adding Murphy and swapping out Contreras will indeed improve the team. The Braves are better today than they were yesterday. Murphy is such an upgrade that it won’t be surprising if he out-WARs Contreras in their remaining years of control.

Aside from Milwaukee absolutely walking away from this trade with a heist, the Braves paid a reasonable cost for the incoming Murphy, even if the quantity at first looks shocking. While not perfectly scientific, Baseball Trade Values has this trade as a massive loss for the A’s and a massive win for the Brewers.

However, I personally wonder if they made the right move. As I mentioned, there is no question this improves the team for next season, but it does further deplete an already depleted farm system. Additionally, it strengthens an area where the Braves were already at the top, without improving either LF or SS. This doesn’t open up much payroll (though the team did shed $1 million), which isn’t giving them more freedom to address the holes.

The Braves don’t get Murphy without moving a player of Contreras’s caliber. The team just doesn’t have the depth to acquire a player like Murphy, otherwise. The trade isn’t a slam dunk win like it is for the Brewers (again, wow, what a heist), Murphy is the third-best catcher by fWAR since 2019.

However, Muller, Piña, Freddy Tarnok, Royber Salinas, and Justin Yeager could’ve all been moved to improve areas of need instead of altogether for Murphy, while also retaining Wild Bill. Contreras still has five more years of control left (compared to Murphy’s three), and he hit at an All-Star level for any position player, not just catcher, for 376 PAs.

Again, this is not a bad trade for the Braves. Murphy is very, very good and opportunities to acquire such players are rare. I just wonder if the prospects could’ve been better used. As for Wild Billy Contreras, I’ll really miss watching him play.