Braves Free Agent Target: Could This Former Mariner Be A Brave?

The Atlanta Braves are in the fortunate situation in 2023 that they do not have many holes to fill. In fact, other than shortstop, every other area on the roster is more of an upgrade than a “need” since the depth chart has each position filled with a player with starting experience.

However, it could be argued that the Atlanta Braves do in fact have a “need” in left field. In terms of runs created plus (wRC+), which is a stat that is an all-encompassing offensive stat by Fangraphs, the Braves were 29th in all of MLB.

Currently for 2023, the Atlanta Braves do employ Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna (of course, he should truly only be a DH and even that is debatable), which could complicate things. Between the tw0, the Braves owe them $25 million.

Would Mitch Haniger be the upgrade the Atlanta Braves need in left field?

One player that could be affordable that fits the mold as an upgrade in left field is Mitch Haniger. He has shown flashes of being excellent (especially in 2018) and has been consistently above average with the bat ever since he joined the Mariners in 2017. It is also worth noting that this isn’t idle speculation as there are at least some rumors going around that the Braves could be interested in Haniger.

First, the drawbacks.

Mitch Haniger does have an injury history. In 2018 he had left wrist and knee injuries, in 2019 a freak testicle injury, 2020 a back injury, 2021 an undisclosed injury, and in 2022 he had ankle and back issues.

He has drawn mixed reviews on his defensive metrics. As far as defensive WAR, he has a career mark of 0.1, which is considered about league average for his career (he had a 0.0 in 2022). He has a career 17 defensive runs saved (DRS), most recently with 3 in right field in 2022. With Statcast’s outs above average (OAA), he seems to see-saw almost every year. In 2016 he had 2, followed by -1 in 2017, then -6 in 2018, 4 in 2019, -7 in 2021, then finally 2 in 2022 for a grand total of -6.

For reference, in 2019 he was top 16.0 percent in MLB in OAA, then in 2021 he was bottom 5.0 percent (he did not play in 2020). So, defensively we do not know what we are going to get. As far as arm strength goes, he has drawn good metrics at top 17.0 percent and top 21.0 percent the last two years. As we know by watching Ozuna, arm strength matters.

We should not, that Haniger typically plays right field. He has a grand total of 74.0 innings in left. However, in most cases if a player can handle right field, they can also handle left field.

When on the field we have seen that he can be valuable overall. Since 2017 he has an OPS+ of 126 (26 percent above league average), and 4.4 WAR per 162 games played.

In 2018 he had a season that was worthy of MVP down votes with a slash line of .285/.366/.493 (139 OPS+) with 26 HRs.

Even outside of his excellent 2018, Haniger never had an OPS+ below 108 since he became a full time player in 2017. The offense he brings, along with him arm strength is an obvious upgrade over Marcell Ozuna ever stepping foot in the outfield again.

When bringing in a player, you are signing him for what he can do for you in the future, not what he has done in the past, so it makes sense to look at Haniger’s expectancy stats (XSTATS).

In 2021 (which was his last full season’s worth of data), Mitch Haniger did well in comparison to his peers according to Statcast:

·         Expected weighted On Base Average (xwOBA) – Top 26 percent of MLB

·         Expected batting average (xBA) – Top 35 percent

·         Expected slugging (xSLG) – Top 19 percent

·         Expected on base percentage (xOBP) – top 45 percent

·         Hard hit percentage – top 27 percent

He did struggle with strikeouts being in the bottom 28 percent, and his walks at the bottom 35 percent, but his contact skills were well above average.

How would Haniger fit into the Atlanta Braves lineup?

One area that can be considered is running a platoon situation with Eddie Rosario. Rosario had a bad year in 2022, there is not denying it, but he did have an OPS+ of 113 against righties as recently as 2021. Mitch Haniger does not have extreme platoon splits like Rosario does, but he does hit lefties better than righties, and much better than Rosario does. In 2022 he hit lefties at a 114 OPS+ and in 2021 at 147 OPS+.

Bringing in Haniger could also give the Braves more options in general. Against righties they could potentially play both Rosario and Haniger in the same lineup now that the DH is permanent. Haniger does hit lefties better than righties, but he still hits righties at an above average clip. In 2022 he hit righties at .245/.296/.429 clip, which in terms of OPS+ was 4 percent better than league average.

Against lefties they could run Haniger in the field and William Contreras at DH (or catcher for that matter) where he absolutely destroyed them at a 189 OPS+ in 2022.

Ultimately, it comes down to cost. Haniger could be looking for a 1-year pillow contract coming off an injury plagued year, which is right up Alex Anthopoulos’ alley. If they do bring in Haniger, there would be a log jam in the outfield.

Does Anthopoulos work his magic and shed some of Ozuna’s contract? Does he shed some of Rosario’s? Time will tell. Either way, Haniger would easily make the Atlanta Braves a better team.