Why the Atlanta Braves’ Dale Murphy shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame

Dale Murphy is, and always will be an Atlanta Braves legend. With the restructuring of the voting committees for the Hall of Fame, he may finally get in after not making the cut in the initial balloting process.

Often times, if you talk to longtime fans of the Atlanta Braves, Dale Murphy and Atlanta Braves are synonymous. For good reason. He was a stud for them during hard times.

He was a seven time All-Star, five-time Gold Glove recipient, four-time Silver Slugger, and two-time MVP. For his career he had a solid slash line of .265/.346/.815 which equates to an OPS+ of 121 (21 percent better than league average), with 398 Home Runs, 1266 RBI, and 1197 Runs.

These numbers make up for an excellent offensive career, so it is no shock that many fans want him in the Hall of Fame. Add the note that he is the only two-time MVP to not be voted in, and it absolutely makes sense.

What did Atlanta Braves legend Dale Murphy’s career look like beyond his peak?

Here’s the thing, Murphy had an excellent career, but he simply does not have the type of numbers that the large majority of Hall of Famers do.

From 1982-1988 Murphy was one of the best in the league. He averaged 160 games per year and had 1123 hits, 242 HRs, and a slash line of .280/.373/.515 which equated to a 140 OPS+. During that time, he accumulated 37.2 WAR. These numbers are truly special.

However, in the 11 other seasons of his career, he only accumulated 9.3 WAR total. That is an average of 0.84 WAR per year. For reference, Robbie Grossman had 0.8 WAR this past year. Murphy had an amazing seven-year peak, but averaging a 2022 Robbie Grossman season the rest of his career is decidedly not great.

From 1976-1981 (prior to his 7-year peak), he had a 107 OPS+, which is not bad, but seven percent better than league average is not elite by any means. For reference, Orlando Arcia was the closest 2022 Brave to that number at 104 OPS+. Remember, OPS+ is adjusted for the league that year so it shows how well a player did in comparison to his peers.

In the years following his peak (1989-1993), Murphy had 92 OPS+, so he was hitting eight percent below league average. For reference, the closest 2022 Brave to that number was Marcell Ozuna with an 89.

Another area which may be the reason why it is possibly shocking that his WAR might be lower than expected is his defense. For a large part of his career, he was well below average defensively. Yes, he won Gold Gloves, but prior to 2013 (and even then its still iffy), they were pretty much a joke. We saw Rafael Palmeiro win a Gold Glove in 1999 while only playing 28 games in the field. The Gold Glove debate is a whole article in itself, so we will save it for later, but just know that Gold Gloves were mostly voted on as consolation prizes or likeable guys.

Either way, Murphy made some slick plays in center field, but he should not have been playing there.

Let’s just say that had modern metrics been available, Murphy should have found a home in the corner OF for his entire career. If we look at Rtot, which is total zone rating, it looks at a player’s range and determines how many runs were saved. In his nine seasons in CF, he had -40.0 Rtot. That is not a typo. For his career he had a total Rtot of -33.0. He was able to gain some value back in RF where he had a positive 28.0 in twelve years.

For reference, Jose Conseco had a similar career in Rtot with a -30 in seventeen seasons.

In all, Dale Murphy ended his career with a defensive WAR (dWAR) of -6.8. Some of this is, like noted earlier, is due to him playing out of position, but it still happened. The Hall of Fame is not based on “what ifs”.

How does Atlanta Braves Dale Murphy compare to players in the Hall of Fame?

This is where is gets really eye-opening. Like stated earlier, Murphy had an excellent career. However, when you start comparing his career to Hall of Fame players. It just does not add up. Before I get into my thoughts here, I have actually gone over my thoughts on Murph’s Hall of Fame case on my podcast before, so definitely give that a listen if you are so inclined before yelling at me in the comments.

Sure, you can make the argument like “well, Harold Baines is in”. Sure, but he should not be. He does not come close to the large majority of his peers in the Hall of Fame.

If we look at Murphy’s best 7-year peak, which is 41.2 WAR, the average player in the Hall of Fame in his most played position (CF) had 44.7 WAR. So, this is close. We can see how he was playing at an elite level.

However, if we look at a full career, Murphy had 46.5 WAR, where the average centerfielder had 71.6 WAR. It is not really close. There are nineteen players where there most played position was center field in the Hall of Fame, Murphy ranks 27th all-time in WAR for such players.

If we use the Hall of Fame standards test, developed by Bill James, we will see the average Hall of Famer has a score of 50, while Murphy has a 36. He is ranked 252nd all time. This test gives a player points for things like one point for every 150 hits over 1500, one point for each 100 RBI over 800, among many other numbers that voters typically look at.

These numbers are not exact science by any stretch of the imagination, but it does help paint a picture of how a player compares to his peers.

Ultimately, Dale Murphy was an extremely good player that had an elite peak. When he was at his best, he was arguably one of the top players in MLB. However, his peak was about all he had. When you compare him to Hall of Fame players, they had longer sustained success for their entire careers.

Dale Murphy is deserving to be in the Atlanta Braves Hall of Fame. If there were a Hall of Best Peak Years, Dale Murphy would have been a first ballot member. However, as far as the Hall of Fame, he just does not quite stack up with other players enshrined.

He may very well get in with these restructured committees, and you won’t hear many people complain. However, if he does not, we know why. It is not because he played for bad teams or had sort of hate against him. His full body of work statistics just don’t quite match up with players already enshrined.