After a dominant showing by the Atlanta Braves bullpen in 2021, it’s hard to imagine the team could improve any more in that area. However, just hours after introducing Matt Olson as the Braves first baseman, Alex Anthopoulos finalized another move with a two year, $10 million deal for Collin McHugh.
He began his career in Houston as a start and was eventually transitioned to the bullpen where he found immediate success by posting a 1.99 ERA in 2018 and a 4.70 ERA in 2019. McHugh would sit out the shortened 2020 season and joined the Rays in 2021.
That season in Tampa saw McHugh post a 1.55 ERA over 64 innings, recording 74 strikeouts and just 12 walks. He was a perfect addition as he proved the ability to pitch multiple innings. That is incredibly valuable in today’s game. Over 37 appearances in 2021, he threw multiple innings 25 times while limiting opponents to a .207 average and a .252 on-base percentage.
Immediately, fans recognized that this was a perfect decision by AA as Collin was a late inning arm with the ability to pitch multiple innings. Would Collin live up to the standard that he had set for himself?
How did the 2022 season go for Collin McHugh?
The season was off to a bit of a rough start for Collin as he just couldn’t get settled into a groove. After the first two months of the season, he’d pitched to an ERA of 4.26. That’s not the performance McHugh and the fans had envisioned at the season’s beginning.
Fortunately, Collin was able to make adjustments and by the season’s end, he had a 2.60 ERA and a 2.71 FIP across 69.1 innings. This was good enough to earn a 1.4 WAR which is just .4 away from what it was in 2021. The ERA and FIP were a little inflated but McHugh was incredible for Atlanta. He came through clutch most of the season and helped give the Braves multiple innings 24 times in the over 58 appearances.
Atlanta was 38-20 in games that McHugh appeared in. He relied very heavily on his slider throwing it 48.3% of the time while throwing his cutter 47.5%. The final two pitches in his repertoire (curveball and 4-seam fastball) were thrown just 3.4% and 0.8% respectively.
.@Collin_McHugh appreciation Tweet 👏#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/KLdvr865Kg
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) June 29, 2022
He was one of the best bridges Atlanta could have had to reach the back end of the rotation. If Snit calls his name from the bullpen, it’s a sure bet he’s going to go out and give you a great outing. That’s a luxury every team wishes they could have.
What can the Braves expect from Collin McHugh in 2023?
It’s safe to say the Atlanta Braves can expect McHugh to provide them with a similar performance in 2023. While he did have a rough year after his best year with Houston, I don’t feel that will be the same result next season. Baseball-Reference projects McHugh will go 4-3 in 2023 with a 3.04 ERA. They estimate 68 innings pitched with a K/9 of 9.1 and BB/9 of 2.4 in that time frame.
We can guess his FIP will sit around 3 if we average the last four seasons together and I think that’s a fair assessment. As long as McHugh can stay healthy, the Braves will continue to get immense value out of him. He will provide leverage for Brian Snitker on days when the starters may only be able to go 4 or 5 innings. Depending on who AA decides to bring on in the off-season, I see McHugh keeping a similar role as a bridge to the late-innings.
He has some of the nastiest break I’ve seen when he is pitching up to his full potential and is able to work both sides of the plate fairly well. His arm feels pretty essential to the success of the Atlanta bullpen and it seems he’s a great presence in the clubhouse as well.