Atlanta Braves 2022 Player Review: Kyle Wright

Kyle Wright was exceptional in 2022 for the Atlanta Braves. Not only was he exceptional, but he also took a huge step forward in his own performance, while filling a need in the rotation since other players either took a step back, or were injured

Kyle Wright did show some flashes of being good prior to 2022 for the Atlanta Braves. Although he did give up 7 earned runs in 0.2 innings in game 3 of the NLCS in 2020, he did perform well in his other 3 playoff appearances prior to 2022 where he gave up only 1 earned run in 11.2 innings.

Other than those 3 playoff appearances, Kyle Wright had largely not lived up to his 5th overall draft selection prior to this season. It may be surprising, but Wright has made an appearance every year since 2018 with mixed results (and that is being conservative).

Although in small sample sizes in his 2018-2021 seasons, Wright’s ERAs was 4.50, 8.69, 5.21, and 9.95 respectively. They are small sample sizes so ERA can be inflated, but his expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP), which factors in pitch quality, and removes the factor of good or bad defense behind him, does not tell a better story.

From 2018-2021 his xFIP per season was 6.42, 5.44, 5.33, and 8.32 respectively. He was used sparingly per season, so if we add it all up, his surface numbers equated to 6.56 ERA (which was 29 percent below league average in terms of ERA+), 1.686 WHIP, and a strikeout to walk ratio (SO/W) of 1.23. These numbers equated to a -0.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

For reference, the highest league average WHIP in a season during that time frame was 2019 with the average being 1.334. The worst year in terms of league average SO/W ratio was 2.56 in 2020. We already touched on his ERA+, and can see that pretty much across the board, Wright struggled from 2018-2021.

Kyle Wright turned this around in 2022 for the Atlanta Braves and had a legitimate breakout

2022 was a different story entirely for Kyle Wright, and it could not have come at a better time. Ian Anderson regressed in 2022 enough to the point that he was sent back down to AAA for the remainder of the season, Charlie Morton had a down year by his standards, and Mike Soroka had a setback in his rehab.

Kyle Wright ended up having excellent numbers in the 2022 regular season with an ERA of 3.19, which was 27 percent better than league average in terms of ERA+, 1.159 WHIP, a 3.28 SO/W ratio, and 3.6 WAR. He also led the league in Wins, although that is far from a good measurement of pitcher performance (but we will leave that to another article).

A lot of this improvement can be attributed to his approach. Kyle Wright has changed his pitch selection and is now throwing his curveball at the highest rate of his career, while cutting back on his four-seamer and slider (which acts more as a cutter anyway). His slider was pitched at the lowest rate of his career which was probably for the best.

Partly due to this pitch selection change, and that he now has more vertical and horizontal movement on three different pitches, his groundball rate has sky-rocketed. His average launch angle against him was only 4 degrees, which is due to hitters hitting on top of the ball 40.3 percent of the time. For reference, the league average since 2018 (when Kyle Wright debuted) has been 33.0 percent.

His groundball rate shot up to 55.5 percent of the time in 2022. His next highest season was 46.5 percent. For reference, the league average rate since 2018 has been 44.9 percent. This lower average launch angle and higher groundball rate has helped him drop his home run rate as he dropped a full one home run per nine innings from his 2018-2021 seasons to 2022.

Although Kyle Wright has obviously transformed into an elite groundball artist, he has also cut back on walks as well as finding a true put away pitch to help with his strikeouts. In the 70 innings pitched from 2018-2021, Kyle Wright walked 6.2 per nine innings pitched. In 2022, he averaged 2.6 per nine in 180.1 innings. For reference, the league average in 2022 was 3.1.

Kyle Wright also brought up his strikeouts. Part of that was walking fewer hitters, but also because he found a true out pitch (two strike pitch that results in a strikeout). On his slider/cutter, if hitters had two strikeouts, and he threw that pitch, they struck out 57.1 percent of the time.

In 2022, Kyle Wright went from being a fringe MLBer to a legitimate top of the rotation starter. He is not as flashy as pitcher because he does not strikeout a ton of hitters like a Spencer Strider or Charlie Morton. However, Wright was an unsung hero nonetheless for the Atlanta Braves in 2022. Here is to hoping that continues in 2023 and beyond.