Atlanta Braves: Potential “Bad Contract” Swaps for Marcell Ozuna

One of the biggest questions entering this offseason for the Atlanta Braves is what to do with Marcell Ozuna. His struggles at the plate over the past two years coupled with his recent legal troubles have left many Braves’ fans wondering why he is still on the roster. The biggest issue with moving on from Marcell Ozuna is his contract. After his great 60 game stretch in the shortened COVID year, Marcell received a four year, $65 million contract with a club option on the 5th year, which has aged very poorly.

So just how bad is Marcell Ozuna’s contract right now?

Marcell only has two years left on that contract excluding the club option in 2026, but many teams are unwilling to bite on the two years considering his AAV for the next two years stands at $16.25 million. It was reported that the Braves tried to send Ozuna to the Nationals in exchange for starting pitcher Patrick Corbin, another famously bad contract, but the deal was unsuccessful . With the Braves more than likely having to find a team with another bad contract to make a trade, I have explored a few possible “bad contract swaps” for Marcell Ozuna.

Jose Berrios

Berrios, the 7-year veteran, began his career with the Twins. From 2017 to 2020, Berrios posted an ERA of 3.89 and a K/9 of 9.0, which earned him two all-star selections. After 5 years with Minnesota, Berrios was traded to the Blue Jays midway through the 2021 season. Shortly after trading for him, the Blue Jays quickly extended Berrios through the 2028 season. Berrios’ AAV sits at around $18.7 million, around $2.5 million more than Ozuna’s.

While the extension looked great during the 2021 season, Berrios followed his extension year with an awful 2022 season. Berrios posted a of 5.32 ERA and a 1.419 WHIP, both the highest of his career since his rookie season. His predicting stats were even worse. His expected slugging percentage against was .466, which was in the bottom 5% of the league this year. His expected batting average this year was a .275, which stood in the bottom 8% of the league this year. The price of Berrios’ services is going to continue to go up, as well, given that his contract was backloaded.

One of the key holes the Braves will address this offseason in a 5th starter to round out the rotation. Berrios offers veteran experience and playoff experience, both things the Braves are looking for out of their final starter. Berrios has been a very solid starter in the MLB since 2017 and could prove 2022 was a fluke.

One of the issues with the deal lands on the Blue Jays need for Marcell Ozuna. Marcell realistically should only be a DH in the MLB considering how bad his defensive efforts in the outfield are, and the Blue Jays already have Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen, who the Blue Jays swap as catcher and DH. The Blue Jays could theoretically put Ozuna in the outfield, but that would make little sense considering the Blue Jays’ outfield consists of Teoscar Hernández, George Springer, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

The Braves also wouldn’t want to trade for a pitcher that still had six years left under contract, unless that person is expected to be a real contributor for years to come. With the young starters the Braves have in Gwinnett such as Kyle Muller and Bryce Elder, it would be silly to acquire any guy you don’t think give you many more quality years.

With both players having similar AAVs, a deal to swap the two players could be beneficial to both teams if the Blue Jays aren’t sold that Berrios will turn things around.

Brandon Crawford

I am bit hesitant to call this a bad contract considering how good Brandon Crawford’s 2021 season was. In 2021, Crawford posted a 6.1 bWAR and a .895 OPS, which earned him both a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger as well as placing 4th in NL MVP voting. After a fantastic 2021 season, Crawford followed with a less than savory 2022 year. Though Crawford did deal with some injuries that sidelined him for a good stretch of games, the 118 games Crawford played were a lot closer to his career numbers. Crawford, who has posted a .722 OPS over his 12-year career, totaled a .652 OPS and a .6 bWAR in 2022.

Crawford and Ozuna’s current contract situations are nearly identical. Both are owed around $32 million over the next two years, so a trade makes complete financial sense. Sending Crawford to Atlanta also opens a spot for SS Marco Luciano, the Giants top prospect and 16th best prospect in the MLB according to MLB.com. The Braves are also in need of a shortstop and might have to scramble for an MLB-ready SS if Dansby Swanson decides to walk.

While the Giants may have Luciano tucked away in their farm system and are wanting to get him to San Francisco as soon as possible, I have hard time seeing the Giants trade away Brandon Crawford. Crawford has played every single of his career with the Giants and its hard to imagine he doesn’t retire a Giant.

The Giants could be in need for a DH/Left Fielder if Joc Pederson decides to leave this off-season, so keep this trade on your radar.

Madison Bumgarner

Over his 14 years in the MLB, Madison Bumgarner has become a household name. Bumgarner has donned the nickname MadBum, both a play on his name but also his demeaner on the field. There are few players in the league that are as animated as Bumgarner. As one of the most prolific pitchers in the MLB throughout the 2010s, Bumgarner has earned the ability to be excited.

Bumgarner was selected to four straight all-star teams from 2013 to 2016 for the Giants, also finishing top 10 in NL Cy Young voting in each of those four years. Though that stretch of four years was the peak of his career, his career 3.42  ERA shows he has been a great pitcher in the MLB for well over a decade.

Unfortunately for Bumgarner, it seems his best years are behind him. After logging 10 straight seasons with a sub-4 ERA, MadBum’s last three years have seen a significant step down from what we were used to from MadBum. Over Bumgarner’s last three seasons, he has tallied a 4.98 ERA and 1.330 WHIP. These numbers have left the Diamondbacks, who signed MadBum to a five year, $85 million contract before the 2020 season, searching for answers on what to do with the veteran pitcher.

As mentioned before, the Braves have one more spot to fill in the starting rotation and Bumgarner is a veteran with plenty of playoff experience, something the Braves are surely looking for. Bumgarner will be earning 23 million in 2023 and 14 million in 2024, which is slightly more than Marcell in total over the next two years.

While Marcell Ozuna does not offer much of anything in the way of defense, Ozuna’s ability to hit the ball hard and hit home runs could be something the Diamondbacks, who ranked 20th in the MLB this past season in slugging, could be something the Diamondbacks look to pursue this offseason. Ozuna’s 23 home runs in 2022 would rank 3rd on the Diamondbacks.

There are also numerous reports that Arizona is looking to move MadBum before the start of the 2023 year. The Braves trying to trade for Patrick Corbin earlier this year indicate that someone like Madison Bumgarner could be on their radar. Perhaps the Braves should give the three-time World Series champion an opportunity in Atlanta.

Javier Baez

Javy Baez might be the most polarizing player in the MLB. If you take a look at his stats year by year, you would be shocked how a player could be so volatile year by year. Baez, famously nicknamed El Mago or the magician in English, can make an incredible defensive play that seems completely impossible, and then swing at a pitch so far out of the zone you are confused why he is in the MLB.

Baez could possibly the most inconsistent player in the MLB, but his talent is undeniable. With the Detroit Tigers this past season, Javy Baez posted a .671 OPS and a .238 batting average, definitely not numbers he or the Tigers would have hoped for. Before the 2022 season, Baez signed with Detroit on a six year, $140 million contract which many questioned initially and even more now.

Baez’s large contract seems like a humongous overpay based off his 2022 season, but in 2021 Baez had an OPS+ of 140 in a shortened 47 game sample size. Many believe that the old Javy Baez that amazed many with the Cubs is gone, but I believe he still has the potential to be an elite shortstop in this league. With many MLB insiders reporting that Dansby Swanson will receive $30 million a year, making a trade for Javy Baez instead of re-signing Dansby could end up being the cheaper option.

Trading Baez could give the Tigers an out on a contract that many seems is an overpay and focus on retooling their future. Obviously Marcell Ozuna doesn’t fit into the future of any team, but two years of Ozuna compared to five more of Javy Baez could prove to be valuable to the Tigers who have struggled to rebuild for years. Many Braves fans probably dread the idea of Javy Baez wearing a Braves uniform for five years, but if any coaching staff could help a player revitalize his career, it would be Rick Kranitz and the rest of the Braves hitting staff.

While it seems unlikely the Braves would shell out a significant amount of money or take on a large contract for a shortstop not named Dansby Swanson (or possibly Carlos Correa), a deal for Javy Baez would fill the hole.