Atlanta Braves roster challenges remain as payroll rises

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The Atlanta Braves jumped into the top 10 payrolls in baseball by extending their core, but filling remaining needs isn’t as easy as many fans believe.

Atlanta Braves President Terry McGuirk woke sleeping fans up when he told AJC’s Justin Tuscano he wanted the Braves to have one of baseball’s top-five payrolls.

I saw tweets that said, in various ways, it was about time the Braves spent some money. Fun fact, the Braves have spent money.

Show me the money!

Sites talk about team payrolls in different terms. Cot’s Contracts shows opening-day payroll for the 26-man roster, while FanGraphs uses their estimate of the Opening Day 40-man roster payroll

All amounts are estimates and, as such, will vary slightly. The variance treats all teams the same, which is why all have (or had) the Atlanta Braves’ payroll ranked ninth in baseball. The last time COTS had the Braves in the top-ten on opening-day was 2006.

COTS hasn’t posted an estimate of the Braves’ year-end payroll, but Spotrac shows the Braves ended the season with a $200,067,952 payroll when the season ended, which makes them sixth in MLB.

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The tax-man cometh?

Using only 40-man end-of-year payroll, Cot’s shows the Braves had the 10th ranked competitive balance tax payroll in 2014 and 2020. Cot’s estimate ranks the Braves ninth this year.

Spotrac estimates the payroll lower but puts the competitive balance tax payroll at $233,898,638, making the Braves a payor for the first time. FanGraphs puts the number at $217,281,677 but lowers the other payrolls as well.

Spotrac shows the Braves finished the season with baseball’s eighth highest active payroll behind the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Red Sox, and White Sox, and sixth-highest CBT payroll.

All that to say, joining the top five next year isn’t as dramatic a change as you might have thought, but doing it while improving the roster is a complicated task.

Atlanta Braves pitcher Jake Odorizzi’s contract makes him expensive, no matter what happens. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /

Atlanta Braves need more than a checkbook.

The Atlanta Braves have $159.3M committed to 15 players on the 2023 payroll and could jump to $166M if Ordorizzi opts out; more on that later. Using its estimates for arbitration, pre-arbitration, and minor league costs, Spotrac put’s team’s payroll at $188.5M. Writing for MLBTR, Steve Adams provides an estimate $5M higher and points out what it means.

. . . the Braves will have just over $193MM on next year’s Opening Day roster, before even making an addition.

The Braves don’t have an MLB-ready replacement for Dansby Swanson at short, need a left fielder, and would like a starting pitcher. Filling those holes will require some heavy lifting and slick deals by GM Alex Anthopoulos.

Move on from Marcell?

The obvious answer to clearing payroll space is trading Marcell Ozuna and most or all of his contract, but who would take him? Mark Bowman reported that the team offered to swap Ozuna for Patrick Corbin at the deadline, and the Nationals said no.

Apparently, GM Frank Rizzo was serious when he said the Nationals don’t care how good of a player is, they have zero tolerance and won’t allow players who don’t meet their standards on the team.

I believe the team will have to attach a couple of prospects to Ozuna to find a trade partner.

The hidden cost of Odorizzi

I’m not sure who negotiated Jake Odorizzi’s contract, but it’s so incentive laden he’s expensive to keep and costly to lose. His original contract covered three years at $23.5M with a $6M signing bonus. It breaks down like this.

Signing bonus in three installments of $2M a year
- Actually paid in two installments
Player option for a third year of $12.5M or an opt-out with a $6.5M buyout.
- If he stays, he can earn $500K by reaching 100 IP

Odorizzi has to decide if he thinks he can get a contract of at least $7M on the open market and if the cost and annoyance of moving is worth the difference.

Atlanta Braves chairman Terry McGuirk and general manager Alex Anthopoulos have hard work ahead this winter. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

The Atlanta Braves’ starting shortstop is …

As much as the Braves would like to have Swanson back, I don’t know how they accomplish that without moving Ozuna.

I understand that fans who don’t see Swanson’s value want the team to let him walk and make a splash on Trea Turner or Carlos Correa.

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The same fans haven’t said how a team who can’t afford Swanson would find the money to pay Turner $28-$30M for six years or give Correa $25-$28M for eight years when he’ll play less than 140 games a year.

I can suggest theoretical trade candidates, but a quality player like Willy Adames may cost more than the Braves have in their system.

That’s a wrap

The Atlanta Braves moved swiftly to lock up their everyday core players, but the team could lose one of baseball’s top five shortstops with no in-house replacement.

The bench needs help, the DH didn’t hit, left field was a black hole on both sides of the ball, and one of the league’s strongest rotations fielded only one healthy starter when it mattered most.

Next. How good was Matt?. dark

GM Alex Anthopoulos has limited minor league capital and dwindling payroll room to fix these issues. Think of it as playing Monopoly when someone else owns Park Lane, Boardwalk, and the bank.

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