If Atlanta Braves new rookies proved nothing else this year, it’s that they can exceed the prior expectations of scouts.
Normally during the course of a baseball season, a contending team can’t rely upon the performance of a rookie to improve their lot.
The Atlanta Braves turned that narrative on its ear in 2022 by employing the services of two rookies placed into regular service for the balance of the season along with a third that had high impact for over a month.
That doesn’t even include the contribution of Kyle Wright – a non-rookie, of course – who came into this season with just 70 MLB innings to his name, yet led the majors in wins, threw 180 innings, and was the only effective starter in 3 playoff games.
But this discussion revolves around the assessment that Baseball America’s observers had made of Atlanta’s top rookies before this season and how the estimations of their abilities has morphed over this Summer.
All of this comes from a story posted Monday on their (subscriber-only) pages with the ungainly title: “Grading The 2022 East Division Rookies: Top 10 Prospect Graduates Based On Updated BA Grades“
As noted, the article has details on just 10 NL and AL rookies in their respective Eastern divisions. Some teams have no representatives mentioned. One team (the Nationals) have 2 rookies on their list… and both of theirs actually came from the Padres.
The Braves have three.
The Rookies
Tops on the Braves list is one of their top 2 Rookie of the Year candidates in Michael Harris II. BA’s previous scouting rating this pre-season (on the 30-80 scale) was an overall 60 with “High” risk (not at all unusual among young minor leaguers). Solid.
Their new look increases his rating to 65 with low risk… this skips completely over “medium” and the text pegs him for Gold Glove-level defense and an All-Star career.
The risk rating suggests that he’s close to a lock into being able to reach these levels, and perhaps so for the longer term… which is exactly what the Braves obviously believed when they negotiated his extension deal.
Spencer Strider is the next up in their discussions (both trail only Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman, who scored the same 75 scouting rating he held from earlier in the year, but also had his risk lowered from medium to low; of note, he’s also older than any of the Braves mentioned).
Strider’s preseason rating was a relatively uninteresting 50 with high risk.
Note: minor league pitchers tend to get labels of High and worse (“Extreme”) from their scouts for the usual reasons; Strider having already been through a Tommy John procedure actually holds down his risk level a bit.
The reassessed rating, however, would be shocking had we all not witnessed Strider’s performance through the Summer: 65 with medium risk.
BA went much further, noting his record-breaking strikeout binge, 2.77 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Then they admitted he’s now looking like someone with the worse-case outlook of a number 3 starter.
So now he’s become the first home-grown pitcher to agree on a lengthy contract extension with the Braves since Julio Teheran.
Vaughn Grissom’s presence did not escape the BA scouts’ notice, either.
Previously having a pedantic 45/High rating (basically thought of as a fringy MLB/cup-of-coffee callup guy), he’s jumped in their minds to the level 55/Medium with a future outlook as a ‘potential above-average regular’. BA lists him 7th on this top-ten chart.
The late fallback in performance as the league figured him out is the limiting factor, of course, but if he can adjust, that will go a long way toward keeping him on the roster in 2023.
The Contrasting View
Lest you think there wasn’t much talent to compare again among this list of 10, all you need to do consider MacKenzie Gore, now a member of the Nationals: as a 3rd overall draft selection, he clearly had a very high expectation ceiling when snapped up by the Padres in 2017 – picking up $6.7 million in the process.
His rating has now slipped to 50/Medium. Compare that to Strider’s numbers for a sobering view about how fortunes have changed for him this season.
Want another data point? On the position player side, there’s the other Nationals’ rookie, CJ Abrams. His 65 rating suggests big hype… like Mike Harris-sized hype. Alas, expectations have now been trimmed to the 55 level.
Sure: the Nationals got some considerable potential back for Juan Soto, but the reality for them is that these players will have to regroup this Winter and see if they can stop the slide they’re on.
Atlanta’s rookies are playing at a completely different level from prior expectations and the scouts at Baseball America are confirming what our eyes have told us: Atlanta has some impact players on their hands.