How might the Atlanta Braves approach the 2022-23 offseason?

1) Dansby Swanson or not, the Atlanta Braves will be big suitors in the loaded shortstop market.

Braves fans who love Dansby Swanson should feel confident about his return. They should also acknowledge the very real possibility that the Braves, at least temporarily, explore the option of signing one of the other talented names on the market.

The top-tier names leaving their respective teams this offseason consist of Trae Turner, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, and Xander Bogaerts. All of them are between the ages 28-30 and will command similar market deals, though there is one that sticks out above the rest: Carlos Correa.

Correa is significant in a few regards, but most notably in that he has the highest career wRC+ out of all the names at 130, has the highest career OPS+ at 129, and has the highest career rWAR at 39.5.

He also finished only .3 rWAR behind Swanson this season, who had the best year of his career. On top of all this, he is also the youngest of the four superstars, a whole 200 days younger than Swanson.

This is significant because the Braves were reported to have checked in on Correa when he was a free agent in 2021.

Correa also happens to be a Gold and even Platinum Glove award winner in 2021, something that none of the other players, even Swanson, have accomplished, though each is an elite defender at their position.

If the Braves find a deal they like for Correa or another shortstop, each of which has had a better offensive career than Swanson, it is entirely possible that they pull the trigger. However, Swanson’s offensive production has taken a jump this year, his defense rivals Correa’s, and there are other reasons for the Braves to be highly interested in bringing Swanson back.

Why are the Braves most likely to bring Swanson back?

Swanson and the Braves front office have expressed mutual interest in having him sign a long-term contract with the team. According to Justin Toscano, the Braves beat writer for the AJC, Alex Anthopoulos confirmed that the reports on the situation suggesting that Swanson wants to return and that the Braves would love to have him back are true.

He’s also on record calling Swanson a “great teammate and leader,” as well as saying that he’d “love to have all [the Braves free agents] back.”

It’s clear that the Braves’ locker room feels the same way. Charlie Morton expressed his interest in retaining Swanson when he claimed that it was “hard to watch [Swanson’s] final at-bat knowing it could be his last,” and manager Brian Snitker has claimed that he hopes to get to work with Dansby again.

Thus, the justifications for bringing Swanson back may be more than statistical.

As an aside, Swanson’s agent is Casey Close, the same agent as Freddie Freeman, whose Braves departure story was less than sunshine and rainbows. It’s entirely possible that the Braves will look to rectify their business relationship with Close by offering Swanson a generous deal.

There are still other positions that need to be addressed, however, and each will have their own major impact on the Braves season.

2) The Atlanta Braves would like Kenley Jansen to return.

Kenley Jansen, the Braves’ primary closer for nearly all of the season, has been polarizing to a lot of the fanbase. This is justifiable, considering Jansen blew seven saves, which was equal to third worst in baseball. However, he also saved 41 games total, second best in all of baseball, and still finished with a respectable 3.38 ERA.

His WHIP, ERA, and FIP numbers made up a top-3 worst season of his career, but the numbers were still certainly good, and he managed to steady the ship quite remarkably toward the later stretch of the season. He could easily command a similar one-year deal with the Braves that he received in 2021.

Alex Anthopoulos confirmed this fact by saying, similar to Swanson, that they’d “love to have him back.”

The Braves have been one of the most active teams in the relief pitcher market over the last few seasons. Since 2019, they have signed five top-of-the-market guys and have traded for others like Chris Martin, Richard Rodriguez, and Raisel Iglesias in the same time frame.

With Luke Jackson, Jesse Chavez, and Kenley not locks to return, expect the Braves to explore the trade market and check in on free agent options such as Adam Ottavino, Michael Fulmer, former Brave Craig Kimbrel, and even possibly former-Mets stud closer Edwin Diaz, though unlikely.

3) With Soroka’s future uncertain, the Atlanta Braves may need another starter.

Mike Soroka has been waiting a long, long time to make his Atlanta Braves re-debut since tearing his Achilles tendon on August 3rd, 2020, and completely re-tearing it on June 24th, 2021. Before his injury, he was comfortably one of the best pitchers in the National League with his career 2.86 ERA.

However, there’s no guarantee that Soroka comes back as the same guy. Tearing your Achilles tendon once is hard enough to return from, but when you do it twice and miss two whole years of throwing in the big leagues, the odds really start to stack against you.

The Braves haven’t given up on Soroka, though. He pitched in six rehab starts toward the end of the season for the first time in two years before being shut down. He might start the 2023 season in triple-A, but he could play a role on the big league club early in the season.

How will the Braves cope if Soroka isn’t ready?

Obviously, Soroka’s success is based on a quite few contingents as stated above. For that reason, the Braves are likely to explore the starting pitching market to acquire another starter.

This area will be one of the most difficult for Alex Anthopoulos to address. The starting pitching seriously struggled in the NLDS, but you have to like Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton as a rotation going into 2023. That doesn’t exactly create a huge need.

On top of that, they have an array of minor league pitching that themselves will be vying for a spot in the rotation in Bryce Elder, Kyle Muller, Jared Shuster, and even former starter Ian Anderson. Internally, the Braves will have options.

On the other hand, Jake Odorizzi may become a free agent. Even if he accepts his player option for this season and remains a Brave, which is probably the most likely scenario, most would agree that he isn’t good enough to be starting every five days with his 4.40 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, and 4.27 FIP.

There is also the possibility that the Braves deal with injuries as they did late in the season.

Which free agents could the Braves be interested in for the rotation?

The chance remains, then, that the Braves go all-out and acquire an ace to give them what would likely be the best rotation in all of baseball.

If you believe the rumors or take stock in the fact that his childhood team was the Braves, Jacob deGrom, who is opting out of his contract with the Mets, is an option. With his career 2.52 ERA, 1,607 strikeouts, and two Cy Young awards, he would instantly become Atlanta’s best starter.

Another option is Carlos Rodon of the San Francisco Giants. Also a free agent, Rodon finished 2022 with a  2.87 ERA, 2.25 FIP, and 237 strikeouts. He is certainly a legitimate ace as well.

The Braves’ recent $20 million extension to Charlie Morton bodes well for their willingness to pay big money for a starter. However, I expect they are more likely to go down the route of a reliable veteran like Nate Eovaldi, Jose Quintana, future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, or even likely AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who the Braves reportedly were close to signing in 2021.

4) By hook or by crook, the Atlanta Braves will need a left fielder in 2023.

Robbie Grossman, Eddie Rosario, and Marcell Ozuna were the primary platoon options at left field for the Braves in 2022. While Grossman was the best option of the three with a 91 wRC+ compared to Ozuna’s 89 wRC+ and Rosario’s 62 wRC+, it’s still below-average production, and he’s going to be a free agent anyway.

Ozuna, with his -0.8 rWAR, and Rosario, with his massive drop-off in production since the 2021 NLCS, are prime candidates to be traded or released, especially with Ozuna owed $32 million over the next two seasons. Trading low-end prospects along with one of them may be the Braves’ only financial reprieve in this situation.

Adam Duvall, with his age, injury, and almost certain drop-off in play, may very well not be pursued by the Braves in free agency either.

Regardless, there will be an opening in left field. One solution will be to bring back Grossman, but he is simply a platoon option for left-handers with his career .790 OPS against them. There would certainly be another left fielder incoming.

What legitimate options can the Atlanta Braves explore for left field?

One free agent option is the powerful Joey Gallo, who absolutely mashes right-handed pitching with a .474 slugging percentage, which fits the Braves’ hitting philosophy. They were reportedly in on Gallo at the 2022 trade deadline before he landed on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

However, the outcome that many diehard Braves fans will be clamoring for is the return of World Champion Joc Pederson. He is a free agent, and you have to assume he would be open to returning to Atlanta.

Joc found his footing again in 2022 with the San Francisco Giants after a few down years, slashing .274/.353/.874 with them, destroying mostly right-handed pitching. He would be an excellent complement to lefty-specialist Grossman.

The only issue is that Joc might demand longevity in his contract, whether that be three or four years. The Braves are perfectly capable of handing that to him, but they may be wary given their track record of mostly handing out one-year deals for non-franchise players.

Options that may fit that mold are former Brave Jorge Soler, who struggled with the Marlins and may choose to opt out of his contract, Michael Brantley, or Mitch Haniger, both of whom would be able to start most games and hit very well against right-handed pitching.

Brandon Nimmo, the Mets’ leadoff hitter and primary center fielder, is worth a shout for his .367 OBP and elite defense, but there will almost certainly be a team that overpays for him.

Aaron Judge and his likely $35 million dollar-per-year deal would break the Braves’ carefully-crafted wage structure, and while it may be worth it, a signing like that simply isn’t what the Braves can afford to do with other holes left to address.

There are so many routes that Alex Anthopoulos can take to construct the Atlanta Braves for 2023, but this article can only cover a few of the most likely. The amount of work that goes into an offseason like this would make armchair general managers never speak up again.

However, this time around, I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments on whether you agree, and if you don’t, what the Atlanta Braves should do instead.