The Atlanta Braves Dansby Swanson enters free agency this offseason. As one of the top shortstops in the game, he will command top dollar. The Braves need to pay up.
Atlanta Braves SS Dansby Swanson has established himself as one of the best overall shortstops in the game. He has compared very well with Carlos Correa over the past few years. See the breakdown here.
Essentially, Dansby has put up very similar offensive and overall numbers to the best shortstops in the game. It’s not unreasonable for Dansby to demand to be the highest-paid player on the Braves next season. Should Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves retain him, that’s what he will be.
Swanson leads all Braves players with a 6.3 fWAR this season, making him the only Brave to exceed 6.0 fWAR.
He’s a candidate for a Gold Glove this season and he just set franchise records for most homers and RBI by a shortstop.
On the open market, Swanson should command $25 million per year, or maybe more. We saw Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor each brought in over $30 million per year in recent deals. It’s reasonable to think Dansby would end up somewhere between those guys and the $23 million Javy Baez earns annually.
Dansby filled the leadership role left by Freddie Freeman this past offseason. He is the longest-tenured Atlanta Brave on the team.
Despite AA’s propensity to avoid the long-term contract on unrestricted free agents, Dansby Swanson might prove to be worth the exception. This season is not an outlier for him. Dansby has been a different hitter since the beginning of the 2020 season. His SLG went from .385 pre-2020 to .451 since then. He leads all shortstops in fielding runs above average on Fangraphs this season.
Losing one of the best offensive and defensive shortstops in the game is a big blow to any good team. When it comes time to make an offer, AA has to ask “Can the Braves can afford to lose Swanson?”
Now is the time for Atlanta to keep the core intact for a long time. Dansby is at the core of the core. Nearly all of the other long-term contracts have been value plays in which AA has bought out arbitration years in exchange for pretty low annual salaries. Players like Albies and Acuna are in line to get far less than they would have on the open market over the next few years.
Will Dansby Swanson give the Braves a hometown discount?
The Atlanta Braves do not just represent the team he made his major-league debut with, they represent his childhood. Swanson grew up in the Atlanta area, having reveries of winning a World Series with the Atlanta Braves someday.
He has become a hometown hero and the heart and soul of a really good team. While he may hope to re-sign with the Braves, he has no reason to take less than he deserves. If the Braves can come close to matching other offers, Atlanta must have the edge.
He is a premium player at a premium position. He’s the type of player and person you want to have around with so many young players on the roster. Swanson might require the Braves to stretch the pocketbook a little, but with all of the values they have locked up already, Anthopoulos needs to pay up for Swanson.
Should the Braves pay up for Dansby? Will he be worth the long-term contract he will demand?