House That Hank Built
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Atlanta Braves amazing run to the NLDS ended quietly

By Fred Owens

Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson was sad and dejected the Braves lost the NLDS. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Atlanta Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson was sad and dejected the Braves lost the NLDS. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /
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Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson hit two homers and drove in five runs in the 2022 NLDS. Mandatory Credit: Larry Robinson-USA TODAY Sports /

Really Riley?

Atlanta Braves fans touted Austin Riley as an MVP candidate, and until August 15, he had a puncher’s chance to get a few votes; then, he didn’t.

Riley’s season was more up and down than many realized. His year-end stats look great, mainly due to July, when his average and OBP were over .400.

Split G PA AB H HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March 21 93 82 22 6 9 21 .268 .355 .573 .928
May 28 120 110 27 6 8 38 .246 .308 .446 .754
June 26 112 100 26 6 7 29 .260 .321 .510 .831
July 26 111 104 44 11 7 20 .423 .460 .885 1.344
August 28 127 108 26 3 12 26 .241 .347 .389 .735
Sept/Oct 30 130 111 23 6 14 34 .207 .315 .396 .712

Between August 1 and the end of the season, Statcast shows Riley making contact with 146 pitches; of those pitches he:

  • Hit underneath 33,
  • Topped 58,
  • Hit 26 flares or burners (worm killers),
  • Barreled or made solid contact 20 times, and
  • Made weak contact eight times.

From August 16 forward, he got progressively less likely to do damage.

BB% K% ISO BABIP wRC+
7-1 to 8-15 6.8% 19.3% .348 .391 206
8-16 to 10-4 10.9% 23.9% .179 .255 108
AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA
7-1 to 8-15 .354 .409 .702 1.111 .469
8-16 to 10-4 .222 .333 .401 .735 .327

From September 1 through the end of the season, Riley posted a 51.3% GB rate and a 17.5% popup rate.

Riley wasn’t the only one to stumble as the schedule drew to a close, but Riley’s drop-off was the most significant, and I feel the most damaging long-term because he came up in high-leverage, run-producing situations so often.

William Contreras posted a 20% percent GB rate, and Michael Harris II posted a 55.6% rate. Despite that huge GB rate. MHII continued to hit the ball hard and have good at-bats as the season came to an end.

The NLDS was a different story, he managed only one hit in 14 AB in that series, and I believe he was just plain tired.

Mike played a lot of innings!

Since signing with the Atlanta Braves, MHII had never played more than the 787 innings he put in for Rome last year. Harris is young and fit, but he’s never played this much baseball nonstop, and major-league innings are much harder than minor-league innings.

Michael started this season with 371 innings for Mississippi, then played another 1021.1 with Atlanta, giving him a total of 1492.1 innings, 705 more than last year and just decimal points shy of a 90% increase.

I know everyone gets tired as the season drags on, but players like Swanson and Riley, who’ve been through the wringer in the past, are better able to prepare for it.

I put together a spreadsheet of June to September 30 and August 12 to October 3 splits for the players used most often for those interested. The second sheet is the month-by-month numbers from June forward.

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