Why the Atlanta Braves Won’t Re-Sign Dansby Swanson
Atlanta Braves star shortstop Dansby Swanson could be playing his final games for his hometown team.
The Atlanta Braves‘ magical march to a World Championship in 2021 will also be remembered as the end of the Freddie Freeman era. Dansby Swanson took the crown as the longest-tenured Atlanta Braves player and took the mantle as team leader.
Just one year later, could we be watching the final days of another (de facto) team captain?
Like most of you, I am not rooting for Swanson to hit the road but you have to look at the reality of the situation and Alex Anthopoulos’ tendencies in the contract situation.
Is this the Real Dansby Swanson?
Some have asked if this 2022 version is now the ‘real’ Dansby Swanson. The fear of the contract year performance boost is looming. It can be terrifying to tie your franchise to a big-money player only to have them never achieve the past results for which you paid them.
- In the past two seasons, Dansby has hit 52 of his career 102 homers.
- After slugging .385 over the first four seasons of his career, Dansby has turned up the heat since the beginning of 2020 with a .451 SLG and a .775 OPS (108 OPS+).
Offensively, Dansby appears to have turned that corner after the 2019 season. If you look more closely at the 2019 season, he was on an MVP pace in the first half prior to suffering an injury that really slowed his production in the second half.
Swanson has sustained a high level of offensive production for such a long period of time. I think it’s safe to trust in what he did this year.
Between this season and last, Swanson has put up the single greatest offensive seasons by a Braves shortstop, setting records for home runs and RBI, and fWAR.
Dansby is going to get a big contract. Are the Braves willing to pay market value?
Dansby Swanson is Going to Get a Big Contract
The market for shortstops will be a bit crowded this offseason, but that might help Swanson’s case for a big contract.
Two recent and notable big-name shortstop signings resulted in Francisco Lindor getting $341 million over 10 years and Corey Seager getting $325 million over 10 years.
Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson will all be courting potential suitors this off-season. Swanson’s numbers stack up with the rest of the names on the list.
Some discussions have had Dansby in the Trevor Story/Javier Baez range of six years, $140 million. At that price, Dansby would earn $23 million per year through his age-34 season.
The Braves are already committed to over $134 million in 2023.
There are two problems with a contract similar to Javier Baez’s.
- Dansby Swanson is one of the elite shortstops in the game. He’s worth way more than Baez.
- Javier Baez’s $23 million per year would make him the highest-paid player on the Braves next season.
Carlos Correa signed a three-year, $105 million contract with the Twins this past offseason. Correa may seem like a bigger star worthy of more money, but since the beginning of the 2020 season, Dansby has actually produced a higher fWAR.
Stats Since 2020 – Dansby Swanson vs. Carlos Correa
Swanson fWAR: 12.0
Correa fWAR: 11.7
Swanson DEF: 37.6
Correa DEF: 22.5
Swanson HR: 62
Correa HR: 53
Swanson RBI: 219
Correa RBI: 181
Swanson SLG: .451
Correa RBI: .462
Dansby Swanson has cemented his spot as one of the best overall shortstops in all of baseball and he is going to get paid as such.
Considering the contracts handed out to Correa, Seager, and Lindor, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him go far beyond six years, $140 million like Baez got.
I seriously doubt the Braves are willing to pay any more than that and I doubt Swanson would be willing to take less. Sad face…
Dangerously Large Contracts Outside Braves’ Comfort Zone
The Braves have a propensity to extend young players who haven’t finished arbitration. Not so much with unrestricted free agents looking for long-term deals and big money.
We’ve seen Alex Anthopoulos routinely lock up his young players to long-term deals. He buys out their arbitration years in order to provide long-term security at an assumed discount on years after they were due to be unrestricted free agents (UFA’s).
For example, starting next season Acuna Jr. will earn a “meager” $17,000,000 per year through 2028. That’s cheap for one of the superstars of the game.
Ozzie Albies will earn just $7 million per year beginning next season and he is locked up through 2027, his age-30 season. Unbelievable deal.
AA let Atlanta Braves legend Freddie Freeman walk in free agency and chose to find value in a trade with Matt Olson. Freeman signed for $162 million over six years with the Dodgers. This contract pays Freddie a robust $27 million per year through his age-37 season. It’s a lot of money to pay a player on the downside of his career.
Anthopoulos has remained disciplined and refuses to overpay for a player. I think if the Braves were going to have reached a deal with Dansby, it would have happened already.
Swanson will command serious attention, even in a crowded shortstop market. He’s one of the best offensive and defensive shortstops in the game. He should be at the top of the list for Gold Glove voting this season.
This is going to come down to how the Braves’ front office values Swanson and how much other teams are willing to pay. When is the last time the Braves committed to a long-term massive contract to a true free agent?
Anthopoulos has not had a problem offering one-year contracts to veteran players. The largest UFA contract that comes to mind is Marcell Ozuna’s four-year, $65 million. That has not returned much value, either.
If you go down the aisles of the Library of Massive Contracts, the floors are littered with horror stories, flung to the floor in anger by bitter fans and general managers. Anthopoulos clearly prefers to keep his name off the byline of those horror stories.
If Swanson gets the kind of money he deserves, I don’t think it will be from the Braves.
Next. Top 10 Braves of 2022. dark
What say you? Let it fly in the comments.