Atlanta Braves: What is their X-Factor in the NLDS?
The Atlanta Braves are matching up with the Philadelphia Phillies in what should be a fun National League Division Series.
The number 6 seed Phillies knocked off the number 3 seed Cardinals to face off against the number 2 seeded Atlanta Braves in what could be a much closer matchup than the seeding suggests.
On paper — based on the facts that the Braves are seeded higher, the Phillies had to use their top starters already (potentially shifting the pitching matchups in the Braves’ favor), and the Braves winning 14 more games than the Phillies — one may assume that the Braves are the clear favorites.
However, it is not as simple as just looking at the records and seeding, as we have already seen with the Phillies sweeping the Cardinals, and the Padres beating the Mets.
There are multiple variables in place that play a part in playoff matchups that make them much less cut and dry as just looking at a record of the teams.
First, 162 games is a long season and not all schedules are created equally. Teams play approximately 47 percent of their games against their own division. So, you can’t look at say, the Cardinals and the Phillies and say the Cardinals are better than the Phillies because they won more games. Mathematically, it is not as simple as 93 is greater than 87.
The Cardinals played 46.9 percent of their games against the Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, and the Reds. The Phillies, on the other hand, played 23.4 percent of their games against the Mets and the Braves. The strength of schedule is simply just not the same.
Next, what a team looks like in the first half of the season can be completely different than the second half. We have heard multiple times about that magical date of June 1st that the Braves took the league by fire.
Injuries can happen, leaving lack of depth exposed; trades can be made, future stars can be called up, and minor roster adjustments can be made (trimming the fat of fringe bullpen arms, for example), and more.
But let’s get more specific…
How do the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies matchup?
The Atlanta Braves and Phillies both play in the same division so the strength of schedule factor does not play as big of a role in determining how they would match up. The Phillies and Braves have played each other 19 times this year though. The Braves won the season series 11-8 with 12 of those games coming in the second half in which the Braves won 8.
Even though the Braves took the season series, the Phillies are a very good team. As far as offense goes, the Phillies ranked 10th in MLB in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) with a 106, which measures the ability to produce runs adjusted by ballpark and is measured against the league. For reference, the Atlanta Braves ranked 7th. In total runs scored, the Phillies scored the 7th most, with the Braves scoring the 3rd most.
It makes sense to look at the “what have you done for me lately”, because like stated above, the first half team and second half team are not created equal, not to mention that Bryce Harper — the reigning MVP — is back.
Interestingly, since the start of September the Phillies are ranked 17th in runs scored and 10th in wRC+ while the Braves are ranked 10th in runs scored and 6th in wRC+. There are factors, like who the teams faced as far as rotation arms, but given the fact that the Braves scored. Based on the Phillies wRC+ we can say that it is quite possible they have been a bit unlucky, but the Braves still have the edge here.
As far as the rotation goes, the Phillies are very good. In terms of Fangraphs‘ Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), the Phillies are 2nd in all of MLB and first in the, led by the MLB leader in rotation fWAR Aaron Nola, and rounded out with Zack Wheeler, Kyle Gibson, Ranger Suarez, and Noah Syndergaard who have an ERA+ (100 is league average) of 163, 144, 129, and 99 respectively.
The Phillies are deep too, with Zach Eflin and Baily Falter who both have above-average ERA+ at 101 and 106 respectively.
The Atlanta Braves also have an excellent rotation coming in 7th in fWAR. In the playoffs, top end starters are more important than depth. Typically teams will run a 4 man rotation in the playoffs, so let’s examine with that in mind. If Spencer Strider is able to pitch, the Braves top 4 rotation arms would be Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton with an ERA+ of 164, 127, 153, and 99 respectively.
If we look at rotation fWAR since the start of September, the Phillies and Braves have slowed down a bit. The Phillies are 8th in WAR and the Braves are 10th.
Needless to say, both rotations are very good, but the Phillies appear to have a slight edge, even if Strider is available (and he’s on the NLDS roster).
The Bullpen is arguably the biggest gap between the 2 teams. The Braves’ bullpen on the season had 2nd highest fWAR in MLB. The Phillies had the 9th highest.
Of course, fWAR is an accumulative stat, which can be a bit misleading since some bullpens are used more than others. So, looking at expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP), which does not factor in defense behind them, the Braves had the 6th best in MLB, with the Phillies being way down at 19th.
However, the bullpens change quite a bit over the season, so let’s look at the numbers since September. Since September 1st, the Braves’ bullpen has had the 3rd best xFIP, and the Phillies have had the 12th best.
Both bullpens have gotten better over the season, but it is safe to say that the Braves have the clear advantage here. However, it should be pointed out that the Phillies now have the option to use Eflin and Syndergaard out of the bullpen if needed, which could result in a better bullpen than the regular season numbers suggest.
Defense matters, and the Phillies are bad. According to Fangraphs overall defensive rating, the Phillies are ranked 25th in the league. However, the Braves are not much better at 18th. For the month of September, Atlanta has improved moving up to 13th with the Phillies getting worse at 27th.
What is the X-Factor in the series for the Atlanta Braves?
Postseason series are all about matchups since they are so short. This series is no different. So, what could be the x-factor that could be the difference between the lines that the overarching statistics above have not shown? Pitch types.
One statistic that we can look at is expected weighted on base average (xwOBA), which measure the quality of contact + walks + strikeouts. It is much like OPS+ but is more granular.
The Phillies pitchers utilize a combination of 4-seamer/sinker combo more than 27 other teams in MLB. Aaron Nola uses this combination 52.2 percent of the time. Zack Wheeler uses this combo 59.5 percent of the time.
It just so happens that the Atlanta Braves have the highest xwOBA against a 4-seamer/sinker combo of any team in MLB. The Braves offense is well suited to handle the arsenal that will be thrown against them.
On the flip side of things, the Braves throw a curveball more than 27 other teams at a whopping 15 percent of the time. It just so happens that the Phillies have not had much success against the curve.
They are 10th in MLB in terms of xwOBA against the curve, and breaking pitches are their worst pitch type to face in terms of their xwOBA against.
Next. Breaking down the Phillies for the 2022 NLDS. dark
This series is primed to be a lot of fun. Here is to hoping the Braves play to their strengths, utilize their x-factors, and reign victorious.