The Atlanta Braves are matching up with the Philadelphia Phillies in what should be a fun National League Division Series.
The number 6 seed Phillies knocked off the number 3 seed Cardinals to face off against the number 2 seeded Atlanta Braves in what could be a much closer matchup than the seeding suggests.
On paper — based on the facts that the Braves are seeded higher, the Phillies had to use their top starters already (potentially shifting the pitching matchups in the Braves’ favor), and the Braves winning 14 more games than the Phillies — one may assume that the Braves are the clear favorites.
However, it is not as simple as just looking at the records and seeding, as we have already seen with the Phillies sweeping the Cardinals, and the Padres beating the Mets.
There are multiple variables in place that play a part in playoff matchups that make them much less cut and dry as just looking at a record of the teams.
First, 162 games is a long season and not all schedules are created equally. Teams play approximately 47 percent of their games against their own division. So, you can’t look at say, the Cardinals and the Phillies and say the Cardinals are better than the Phillies because they won more games. Mathematically, it is not as simple as 93 is greater than 87.
The Cardinals played 46.9 percent of their games against the Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, and the Reds. The Phillies, on the other hand, played 23.4 percent of their games against the Mets and the Braves. The strength of schedule is simply just not the same.
Next, what a team looks like in the first half of the season can be completely different than the second half. We have heard multiple times about that magical date of June 1st that the Braves took the league by fire.
Injuries can happen, leaving lack of depth exposed; trades can be made, future stars can be called up, and minor roster adjustments can be made (trimming the fat of fringe bullpen arms, for example), and more.
But let’s get more specific…