Atlanta Braves: breaking down the Phillies for the 2022 NLDS

Breaking Down the Starters

That’s all fine and good, but there’s a couple of things at work before they face the Braves:

• Having played 19 times already in 2022, there’s not a lot of secrets still held between these clubs.
• The Phils aren’t quite lined up to throw their best at Atlanta.

Game 1 coming on Tuesday means that Wheeler and Nola almost certainly are not available until Games 2 and 3: it would be pushing them both on short rest to do otherwise.

The Phillies do have options, though.

Ranger Suarez is the likely starter on Tuesday opposite Max Fried.  Additionally, Atlanta really needs to win both games at home before changing venues for Game 3… the point at which the pitching question marks begin for the Braves.

Here’s how the Philly starters have fared vs. Atlanta this season:

• Suarez:  5 starts vs. Braves.  The following data is shown in chronological order.
  • Innings pitched:  4.1, 6.2, 5.0, 6.0, 6.0
  • Runs allowed:  5, 4, 3, 1, 0.  That last one was a 1-0 victory over Fried.
  • Strikeouts:  4,7,4,4,4
  • Walks:  4, 1, 4, 3, 2
  • Hits:  6, 6, 4, 2, 5 (2 homers)
  • Here’s a pitcher that has improved during the season, with a 4.07 ERA in the first half vs. 3.15 in the second. 
• Wheeler:  3 starts vs. Braves.
  • Innings pitched:  6.2, 6.1, 7.0
  • Runs allowed:  3, 1, 0
  • Strikeouts:  10, 8, 7
  • Walks:  0, 1, 0
  • Hits:  8, 5, 5 (3 homers)
  • Wheeler missed a month (through Sept. 20) with a minor injury, but has only allowed 1 single run since then in 4 starts.
• Nola:  5 starts vs. Braves.
  • Innings pitched:  8.1, 7.0, 6.0, 7.0, 6.0
  • Runs allowed:  1, 4, 5, 4, 0
  • Strikeouts:  10, 8, 7, 8, 8
  • Walks:  0, 1, 1, 2, 3
  • Hits:  5, 7, 7, 7, 4 (5 homers)
  • The Braves have gotten to Nola at times… and have also laid some goose eggs.  Oddly, he’s better on the road (3.00 ERA vs. 3.53 at Citizens Bank Park), but will face Atlanta at home this week.
• Potential Game 4 starter Kyle Gibson:  3 starts vs. Atlanta.
  • Innings pitched:  5.0, 6.0, 5.0
  • Runs allowed:  2, 2, 5
  • Strikeouts:  8, 4, 9
  • Walks:  1, 2, 2
  • Hits:  7, 4, 7 (2 homers)
  • Gibson sports a 5.05 ERA, but mostly hasn’t pitched that poorly against Atlanta… save for his last outing this season.

Let’s not sugar-coat this: the Philadelphia starting pitching is what will keep them in this series.  They are very good and they have challenged Atlanta all year, with most of their starters getting better against the Braves even as Atlanta was running roughshod over the rest of their opposition this Summer.