Projecting the Atlanta Braves division series playoff roster
The roster rules for this time of year are not the same as the regular season, so will the Atlanta Braves choose to mix things up a bit?
A key element of the post-season pattern for Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker is the fact that he tends to use his horses and ride them to the finish line.
At the same time, he’s also not afraid to use his pitching staff — all of it — in an attempt to get the best matchups for his defense.
Those facts may make for some interesting calls in the makeup of next week’s 26-man playoff roster and the decisions about whether the Braves choose to add either an extra pitcher or an extra position player for their second-round series against either the Philadelphia Phillies or St. Louis Cardinals.
Let’s take a guess at how that breakdown might play out.
Opposition and the Rotation
During the regular season, the Braves were 11-8 against the Phillies and 4-3 vs. St. Louis. An advantage, but not an overwhelming one.
Most recently, Atlanta split four games in Philadelphia (Jake Odorizzi powering up the Phils in one of those) and dropped 2 of 3 in St. Louis (thanks to meltdowns from Charlie Morton and A.J. Minter).
The expectation is that the Braves will start Max Fried, Kyle Wright, and TBD in the first 3 games of this NLDS series, regardless of which club they face.
The question mark involves Game 3. According to Brian Snitker (Sirius/XM interview on Thursday morning), Spencer Strider has been throwing without discomfort, but hasn’t yet thrown off a mound.
From a technical point of view, the Braves did activate Strider from the 15-day IL yesterday (October 6).
That third game won’t be contested until a week from today (Friday, the 14th of October — on the road), so there’s still time for Strider to get some additional healing time. The Braves could choose to go with Charlie Morton in that game and hold Strider until Game 4 or later.
In a perfect world, if the Braves sweep the NLDS, Strider’s return could be delayed until the NLCS series… and he’d be set up to pitch twice there.
Regardless of that speculation, the expectation here is that barring any medical setbacks, the Braves go with 4 starters for the NLDS: Fried, Wright, Morton, and Strider.
The bullpen is next.
The Bullpen
Here’s where things start getting more interesting, but there are several relievers that are mortal locks to make the post-season roster: Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Dylan Lee, Collin McHugh, and Jesse Chavez.
It is probable that Tyler Matzek and Jackson Stephens also join this group. That makes 8 relievers to join the 4 starters … 12 pitchers.
The borderline guys? Jake Odorizzi and wild card entries like Jackson Stephens, Bryce Elder, Kyle Muller, or Silvino Bracho. In the playoffs, pitcher who throw strikes and won’t walk hitters are the priority… but none of these guys really fit that mold, so let’s put a hold on adding pitchers for now — particularly since we’re just dealing with a best-of-5 series.
If Strider can’t go, then Odorizzi or Elder would be the logical choice.
The Positions
Most of this will be obvious… but there are still question marks surrounding second base and the outfield.
Another transaction from yesterday was the activation of Ozzie Albies from the 10-day IL. He had been there since fracturing a finger on his throwing hand. That came on the 17th of September, so we’re still only 3 weeks removed from that incident and there’s no reason to believe that he’s going to be ‘baseball ready’ for next week.
That leaves us with the following on the infield: Matt Olson, Orlando Arcia, Vaughn Grissom, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley
For catchers… Travis d’Arnaud and William Contreras. More on this position in a minute.
In the outfield: Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuna Jr., Robbie Grossman, Eddie Rosario.
Let’s count heads… that’s 11 names. With the 12 pitchers, we’ve got 3 slots to go. So here’s the choices to fill out the bench…
The Bench
Brian Snitker likes to use William Contreras in the DH spot while also playing d’Arnaud at catcher. This creates the need to add a third catcher to the roster in case of emergency.
Chadwick Tromp has been nursing a quad injury ever since his heroic August performance in Miami, but he was also just activated by the Braves. If he’s truly ready to go — or at least well enough to provide emergency-only support behind the plate — then it’s quite reasonable to believe he’ll be on the roster.
If not… Atlanta still probably needs to dig up a third catcher from somewhere.
Guillermo Heredia still represents the Braves’ best late-inning defensive outfielder option… and he can man any outfield position in case of injury.
Marcell Ozuna — regardless of any outside-the-lines considerations — has been providing some big hits lately. In this scenario, he’s not starting very often (if at all), but certainly could be used off the bench.
So that’s perhaps the 3 additional names to give Atlanta a final 14-12 alignment of position players and pitchers.
It leaves Ehire Adrianza off the list, but that’s the only real missing piece among the non-pitchers… and he’d almost certainly be named to the “taxi squad”… along with multiple pitchers from the “borderline” list noted above.
This also omits Albies… but the hope is that he might be available if the Braves are able to advance to the NLCS… which would begin a full month removed (Oct. 18) from his injury date (Sept. 17).
So that’s the guess here: no real surprises, but it’s a solid group that Snitker can go to war with.
Giving our love to the bullpen. dark. Next
The Braves have 101 wins on the season… they have perhaps 11 more to go, and all that begins next Tuesday afternoon when the Braves (almost certainly) play the early game as the NLDS round gets underway.